Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
631 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009/...
FORECAST CONTINUES RATHER MUDDLED WITH THIS PACKAGE ISSUANCE.
MESOSCALE BAROCLINIC /THERMAL/ INTERACTIONS BETWEEN AND AROUND
GROWING/DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ALONG AND TO THE N OF A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMPLICATE MATTERS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL
EASE SOUTH TOWARD NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS TODAY...
AND THIS IS WHERE STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY /ALONG THE I 64
CORRIDOR/. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVEL SOUNDING PROGS...COULD BE SOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.

FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NEAR/ALONG THE OH RIVER THIS
WEEKEND AS MID LVL SHORT WAVES PROPAGATE SE IN H50 NW FLOW REGIME.
TIMING OF THESE RIPPLES OF ENERGY ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE AN
EASY TASK. ONE SUCH WAVE SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING...ENHANCING STORM CHCS ALONG THE FRONT. THEN...GFS/ECMWF
BRING A MORE DEFINED FEATURE SE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE SFC FRONTAL POSITION BY THAT
TIME. THE GFS TAKES THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FARTHER NE THAN THE
ECMWF...WHICH BRINGS IT RIGHT OVER THE QUAD STATE. WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW...AND POSSIBLY LET THE DAY SHIFT HONE IN ON
TIMING LOCATION IF MODEL TRENDS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. WHERE THE
STORMS DO FORM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR ALOFT TO RAISE A CONCERN FOR
BOW SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FRONT WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO LEAVE THE REGION MONDAY EITHER...SO
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR THEN TOO. FINALLY LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BRINGING SEVERE HEAT TO THE SRN PLAINS/TX WILL
BUILD NE TUE/WED TIME FRAME...SO SHOULD SEE THE FRONT LIFT OR WASH
OUT IN THAT TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING POPS AND
INCREASING HEAT AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT MVFR
CIGS AND MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS.  LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8
TO 12KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE MORNING.  DECREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 01Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

MEFFERT/RST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
459 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-121000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
459 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTNING.

A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PART OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE LIKELY TO RISE INTO
THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS WEEKEND.