Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
714 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.UPDATE...
REVISED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/
WILL NEED TO BE BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING WEATHER TODAY. DERECHO/BOW
ECHO CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS MORNING EVOLVED INTO A CLOSED COMMA
HEAD ON ITS NORTH END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND PRODUCED
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE /POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADOES/ OVER A SWATH
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SYSTEM IS WEAKENING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL COULD PRODUCE SOME WIND DAMAGE AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS SW IN.

AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM FOR AWHILE THIS
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHC OF SCT SHOWERS DOWN CLOSE TO THE AR/TN
BORDERS. SFC COLD FRONT WILL EASE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AR/TN BORDERS BY LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY WEEKEND AT MANY LOCATIONS.
THE ECMWF/GFS TRY TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP UP INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AT TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT AM SKEPTICAL
OF PRECIPITATION SO FAR NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE A MAJOR CHANGE IN WEEKEND PLANS.

DRY WEATHER IS STILL FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS H50 NW FLOW SHOVES HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER
MAINLY WESTERN KENTUCKY...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL...WITH PATCHY MVFR CELINGS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. BY SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN PREVAILING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

MEFFERT/PRESLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
350 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-092100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
350 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM NEW MADRID TO MURRAY KENTUCKY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MANY AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD.

MANY AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1143 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DONIPHAN                36.62N 90.82W
05/08/2009                   RIPLEY             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING IN DONIPHAN RESULTING IN
            EVACUATIONS OF PEOPLE RESIDING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

&&

JAYSONW

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