Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
541 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2009

.UPDATE...
REVISION FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP A SURFACE TROF FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP THE UGLY WINTER
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST
AND THE PRECIP WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 06Z-09Z...AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
13Z-15Z. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBYS OCCURRING IN THE FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN.

LIFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THOSE CEILINGS WILL
SCATTER OUT ONCE THE PRECIP LEAVES. MODELS INDICATE A LAYER OF VERY
SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG THE SURFACE BUT WITH SINKING MOTION AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN AND LOOKING AT LARGELY CLEARING SKIES UPSTREAM
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TODAY...WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO GO SCATTERED
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF EAST OF A
PADUCAH TO EVANSVILLE LINE AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...SO EXPIRATION
TIMES LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. ONLY CONSIDERATION WAS TO POSSIBLY RENAME
THE ICE STORM WARNING TO WINTER STORM WARNING DUE TO POTENTIAL 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE ICE TONIGHT
WILL HAVE THE BIGGER IMPACT...SO LEFT IT ALONE.

MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING CONTINUOUS SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION ALL THE
WAY BACK TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
LULLS OVER THE AREA UNTIL IT COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE A BRIEF LULL ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

NICE BAND OF WHAT IS ASSUMED TO BE SLEET WILL LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE PERRYVILLE MISSOURI TO BENTON AND MCLEANSBORO
ILLINOIS AREAS. 18Z NAM QPF SEEMS TO HAVE A CLUE WITH THIS
BAND...INDICATING THAT IT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING.

A COMPARISON OF SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS AND NAM INDICATED THAT
THEY WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGH
THE EVENT...AND THERE WILL BE A LITTLE FASTER CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. FEEL THAT AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA BEFORE IT
ENDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...BUT ELSEWHERE INCREASING NORTH WINDS
WILL BRING COLDER AIR QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO SIGNIFICANT
ICING WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF A CAPE GIRARDEAU
TO EVANSVILLE LINE. 1/4 TO 1/2 OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

MODELS ARE INDICATING RATHER RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...BUT AM NOT SO SURE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES...EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE ARE NOT LIKELY TO
WARM UP MUCH AT ALL. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON HIGHS. A QUICK CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH CARVES ITSELF OUT OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY. SO SEE NO MAJOR WARM UP FOR THURSDAY EITHER.

.LONG TERM... /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT QPF. KEPT FLURRIES IN FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR
FRIDAY...THEN WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL
WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

GFS TIMING OF A FRONT SUNDAY IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE
CONSISTENT ECMWF...WITH BOTH MODELS NOW BRINGING IT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.  ECMWF INDICATES MINIMAL QPF OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
REGION...WHILE GFS QPF IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD.  WITH
THE ECMWF NOW STARTING TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROF MOVING OVER THE
REGION.  BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN SEVERAL
DEGREES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BALLARD-
     CALDWELL-CARLISLE-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-HENDERSON-HOPKINS-
     LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CALLOWAY-
     CHRISTIAN-FULTON-GRAVES-HICKMAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BOLLINGER-
     BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-
     WAYNE MO.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MISSISSIPPI.

     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEW MADRID.

IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ALEXANDER-
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-PERRY
     IL-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GALLATIN-
     HARDIN-MASSAC-POPE.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GIBSON-PIKE-
     POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

DRS/RST/WFO LMK 13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
427 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281130-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
427 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE QUAD STATE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
WARNINGS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE WABASH AND
OHIO RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS
FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING THIS DANGEROUS WINTER STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE APPRECIATED.