Severe Thunderstorm Warning 697, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
301 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN FAR SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER AT
THE PRESENT TIME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG A
COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED IN NORTHWEST OK...COMBINED WITH THE LIFT
RESULTING FROM THE TROUGH...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. FURTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG A STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT IN WEST CENTRAL OK.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS STILL EXPECTED TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TAYLOR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  86  64  91 /  50  30  20   0
HOBART OK         71  92  66  92 /  30  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  91  68  95 /  30  20  20   0
GAGE OK           63  87  58  90 /  30  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  82  62  87 /  60  30  20   0
DURANT OK         70  88  67  87 /  40  30  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

23/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1135 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH
A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN REACH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY LATE TONIGHT. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ALONG WITH
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE REGION... MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY AUG 27.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... COULD
AGAIN APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
THURSDAY.

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