Severe Thunderstorm Warning 618, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL MAKE SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE... FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS AFTN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY STALL LATER THIS AFTN. FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH
THURSDAY... EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO KANSAS. WITH BOUNDARY STILL IN
THE FA THURSDAY... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW. OTHERWISE... HOT TEMPS WILL CONT
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA AGAIN THURSDAY.

OVERALL...UPR RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN MOST PLACES REMAINING
BELOW THE CENTURY MARK. MODELS INDICATE MAYBE A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING FROM THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. IF THIS OCCURS... WOULD LIKELY BRING
SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA AT THE LEAST... WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. HOWEVER... WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW RIDGE THEN BUILDING BACK WEST OF THE RIDGE
WITH THE HIGH EVENTUALLY BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  76  98 /  30  20  10   0
HOBART OK         75 102  77 101 /  30  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74 104  78 104 /  30  10  10   0
GAGE OK           69 102  73 100 /  30  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  94  77  97 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         74  98  75  97 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

30/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
CHEYENNE... TO ANADARKO... TO DUNCAN AND MARIETTA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 1 PM
THROUGH 10 PM.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS MAY DAMAGE CARS...ROOFS...AND
VEGETATION. WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH MAY DAMAGE OUT-BUILDINGS AND
TREES...AND ALSO TOPPLE POWER POLES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT MIDDAY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
POOL. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION
OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 500 AM CDT THURSDAY AUG 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR....40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE LOW. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THOSE WHO ARE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
THURSDAY MORNING.

II/03/30

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