Severe Thunderstorm Warning 554, NWS Norman, OK

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

.AVIATION...TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS AFTN.  LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NE/E AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY EARLY EVENING. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN OK/N TX THROUGH THE EVENING WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE TSTMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009/

.DISCUSSION...
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SW ONTARIO
INTO THE MIDWEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
AMPLIFIES...THE CWA SHOULD BE UNDER NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY EACH OF THESE
DISTURBANCES.

STORMS BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NORTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING IN UNSTABLE AIR NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY
SOUTHEAST MOVING STORM COMPLEXES OVERNIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN HIGHER RELATIVE TO THE PAST WEEK. THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY...REINFORCING THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR. NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING...WITH STORM CLUSTERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING TOWARD THE CWA EXPECTED
TO KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER PRESENT AND PREVENT MORNING
LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

THE PATTERN FEATURING A WESTERN US RIDGE AND AN EASTERN US TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE
INHERITED FORECAST HAD THIS WELL COVERED AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
BEYOND THE WEEKEND.

TAYLOR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  91  65  86 /  60  10  20  10
HOBART OK         73  96  68  90 /  60  20  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  99  70  91 /  40  10  30  20
GAGE OK           63  90  60  87 /  60  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     66  87  63  86 /  70  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  93  65  86 /  60  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ033-036>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

25/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
907 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
907 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND IN
OKLAHOMA...THE SLIGHT RISK IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BUFFALO
TO ANADARKO TO ARDMORE AND MADILL.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS HAD EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED THE
LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE OVER MOST NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND
PART OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. GREATER INSTABILITY WAS LOCATED OVER THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...ALTHOUGH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME ROOTED ABOVE THE
SURFACE. AT MID EVENING...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ONGOING IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SPREADING INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...JUST OVER ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUL 17.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...50 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY IN
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL THEN
START TO RETURN NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY MORNING...ONLY TO BE OVERTAKEN
BY THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
FRIDAY JULY 17.

BURKE

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