Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

.AVIATION...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE
THIS EVENING THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE MOVING QUICKLY TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE DRYLINE MAY TEMPORARILY MOVE BACK TO THE WEST
FROM MID TO LATE EVENING... BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
AROUND 06Z. TAF LOCATIONS GAG AND WWR WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF ALL TAF LOCATIONS BY 18Z
TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT:
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG DRYLIINE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING FACTOR
AS MID AND UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS EXTEND WELL SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELL. WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE STORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG
ADVANCING COLD FRONT (LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT). BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AFTER 12Z TUESDAY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE I-44 CORRIDOR WITH MOST OF THE STORMS ENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BY NOON TUESDAY. WILL ALLOW RED FLAG AND WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AT 2 AND 3Z RESPECTIVELY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER STRONG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA TONIGHT...BUT SOME
DECOUPLING SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY AFTER 3Z.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT:
CONVECTION SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO UPPER MIDWEST.  LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS AND DRY...COOL AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN RATHER COLD
TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST 1/3-1/2 OF FA.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
MOISTURE WILL RETURN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WAVE.  SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH FORCING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF FA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT:
STRONG WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.  EC/GFS BY 108 HOURS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH REGARDS TO 5H
LOW. MOST OF THE AREA MAY GET DRY SLOTTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF FA.
WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIP MAY SEE RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT EARLY SATURDAY AM.

WEEKEND:
AFTER UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SHOULD SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  66  37  60 /  60  30   0  30
HOBART OK         42  67  35  64 /  40  10   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  73  44  65 /  50  30   0  40
GAGE OK           35  64  26  62 /  10   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     43  61  36  60 /  80  30   0  30
DURANT OK         61  70  40  68 /  60  70  10  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-
     009>011-014>016-021-022-033-034-036.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087.

&&

32/06/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
100 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT RISK COVERS A LARGER PART OF
OKLAHOMA AND MOST OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CHEROKEE...TO WATONGA...TO EDMOND...TO CHANDLER. THIS
INCLUDES THE CITIES OF MEDFORD...ENID...KINGFISHER...STILLWATER...
AND PONCA CITY. A SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK AREA...
AND IS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALVA IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...TO
CLINTON...TO ALTUS...TO BENJAMIN TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM MID-AFTERNOON
THROUGH 2 AM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...VEGETATION...AND ROOFS FROM LARGE HAIL...AND
VIOLENT THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WIND SHEAR AND ANTICIPATED LOW STORM
BASES...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY WITH ANY DISCRETE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
GENERATE WIND FIELDS STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL DELAY
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE-AFTERNOON...BUT THE CAP IS A LITTLE WEAKER OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...SO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE EXPECTED EARLIER THERE.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IN AND NEAR THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. THESE STORMS WOULD POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING HAIL
AND WINDS...ALONG WITH TORNADOES. STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FORM
INTO ONE OR MORE SQUALL LINES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT SHIFTING TO DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LING WINDS. STORMS
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EXIT SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY MORNING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAR 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80  PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA. REFER TO THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WINDY...WARM...AND DRY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE DRY LINE WILL CREATE EXCESSIVE SPREAD RATES WITH ANY
WILDFIRES THAT OCCUR OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. REFER TO THE LATEST RED FLAG WARNING FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

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