Severe Thunderstorm Warning 539, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SW ONTARIO
INTO THE MIDWEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
AMPLIFIES...THE CWA SHOULD BE UNDER NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY EACH OF THESE
DISTURBANCES.

STORMS BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NORTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING IN UNSTABLE AIR NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY
SOUTHEAST MOVING STORM COMPLEXES OVERNIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN HIGHER RELATIVE TO THE PAST WEEK. THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY...REINFORCING THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR. NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING...WITH STORM CLUSTERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING TOWARD THE CWA EXPECTED
TO KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER PRESENT AND PREVENT MORNING
LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

THE PATTERN FEATURING A WESTERN US RIDGE AND AN EASTERN US TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE
INHERITED FORECAST HAD THIS WELL COVERED AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
BEYOND THE WEEKEND.

TAYLOR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  91  65  86 /  60  10  20  10
HOBART OK         73  96  68  90 /  60  20  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  99  70  91 /  40  10  30  20
GAGE OK           63  90  60  87 /  60  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     66  87  63  86 /  70  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  93  65  86 /  60  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ033-036>048-
     050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

25/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1137 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND ALL OF
NORTHERN... WESTERN... CENTRAL... AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 2 AM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

HIGHER CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
KANSAS LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... AND
DEVELOP INTO A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS THIS EVENING. AS THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUL 17.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS
HEAT INDICES OVER PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THESE AREAS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FAVOR NIGHTTIME STORM COMPLEXES... BUT SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
FRIDAY JULY 17.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
218 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

OKZ007-161930-
GRANT OK-
218 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GRANT COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF WAKITA AT 218 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN GRANT COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

..SPEG.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
411 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

OKZ024-025-162130-
CANADIAN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-
411 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CANADIAN AND OKLAHOMA
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF EDMOND AT 410
PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.  SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM.  ANOTHER STORM WAS DEVELOPING NEAR PIEDMONT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

OKZ038-162200-
COMANCHE OK-
428 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COMANCHE COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF MEERS AT 429
PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN COMANCHE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

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