Severe Thunderstorm Warning 520, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA BUT ARE NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO CORRECT TIMING OF THE HEAT ADVISORY AND IN THE
DISCUSSION.

WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE THE HEAT BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD TOMORROW. WILL START TO SEE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE
WEST TODAY... AND THESE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOMORROW
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHAT TO EXPECT AS
FAR AS DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE HEAT INDICIES AS THERE IS QUITE A
RANGE BETWEEN MODEL DEWPOINT FIELDS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER NUMBERS
THAT MAV MOS PRODUCES. BUT THE ACTUAL GFS DEWPOINT FIELD FOR THIS
MORNING GENERALLY IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES TOO LOW. FOR THE GRIDS HAVE
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MAV MOS AND THE ACTUAL GFS
DEWPOINT GRID WHICH SEEMED TO PRODUCE REASONABLE VALUES. THIS
GIVES HEAT INDICIES OF AROUND 105 IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON... 105-112 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW... AND
ABOVE 105 IN SOME POCKETS FOR FRIDAY /WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED/. WITH THIS... WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY EFFECTIVE FOR TODAY THOUGH FRIDAY IN OUR NORTH TEXAS
COUNTIES... ADJACENT SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA RED RIVER COUNTIES AND
LAWTON. WILL BE WATCHING DEWPOINT TRENDS LATE THIS WEEK FOR
EXPANSION OR CANCELLATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY.

WILL NOT HAVE MUCH PRECIP MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST /EXCEPT LOW
CHANCES FAR NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT/ ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS
NOT NIL THROUGH THE PACKAGE. ACCAS IS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA... AND COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BORDER THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE WEST JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CHANCE OF SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE CWA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING
MORE INTO A ZONAL PATTERN WITH MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED RIDGE. BUT GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW MUCH COOLER WE SHOULD EXPECT. ECMWF KEEPS
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES HOT WHILE GFS /AT LEAST 00Z RUN/ IS
SOMEWHAT COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  74 101  76 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK        100  76 107  78 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 101  77 106  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          100  71 105  74 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     95  75  99  79 /   0  10  10   0
DURANT OK         96  74  98  75 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     OKZ033-036>038-044-045.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

01/01/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
730 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
730 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER KANSAS
HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING. THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY JUL 9.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE 75 DEGREES THURSDAY MORNING WILL EXIST IN
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE FROM THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 COINCIDENT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 75 DEGREES WILL EXIST IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE THROUGH THAT TIME.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
734 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

OKZ005-006-081315-
WOODS OK-ALFALFA OK-
734 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ALFALFA AND WOODS COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES NORTH OF CAPRON AT 734 AM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  HEAVY RAIN... GUSTY WINDS... AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN ALFALFA AND WOODS COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF ALVA...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND
REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

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