Severe Thunderstorm Warning 515, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
306 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND IS STARTING TO LIGHT UP WITH SCATTERED
STORMS. COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY
SEE MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
EXPECTED WHEN BOUNDARIES MERGE THIS EVENING AND WEAK FORCING FROM
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IMPACTS ELEVATED BOUNDARIES.
MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE-40...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH HOW FAR NORTH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXTEND OF SURFACE
FEATURES. WILL LEAVE HIGHEST POPS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
AND CONSIDERED GOING EVEN HIGHER ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARD AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE LATER ON TONIGHT AND
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MARGINAL HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

BEFORE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK...WE COULD SEE SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ACTIVITY AFFECT
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. QUITE HOT BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
UPPER RIDGE OVER OR JUST NORTH OF OKLAHOMA. GFS GRIDDED DATA
GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH FIRST PERIOD TWEAKS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  89  67  91 /  60  10  10  10
HOBART OK         73  93  67  91 /  60  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  91  69  91 /  70  60  10  20
GAGE OK           65  87  63  87 /  20  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  86  63  90 /  20   0  10  10
DURANT OK         75  90  69  89 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

30/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PERRY TO
ENID... TO TALOGA AND CHEYENNE... AND INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...
ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SERVE AS A SOURCE OF CONVERGING WINDS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA WITH TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS HOT WEATHER
WILL CREATE AN ATMOSPHERE WITH MODERATELY HIGH INSTABILITY...AND AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS. HAIL JUST ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS... BUT INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT PRODUCING LOWER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY JUL 5.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 AND HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. IF YOU ARE OUT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE SUN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY... MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE LOW.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WITH A DEEP LAYER OF WARM AIR EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY...HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ASSOCIATED HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
SUNDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
448 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 E CLARITA             34.48N 96.29W
07/04/2009                   COAL               OK   PUBLIC

            25 FEET TALL HICKORY TREE, ONE FOOT IN DIAMETER, BLOWN
            DOWN BY THUNDERSTROM WIND GUST.

&&

FM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
455 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

OKZ021-033>035-042230-
BECKHAM OK-KIOWA OK-GREER OK-HARMON OK-
455 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BECKHAM...GREER...HARMON AND
KIOWA COUNTIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
5 MILES NORTH OF LONE WOLF TO 14 MILES WEST OF HOLLIS AT 455 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN BECKHAM...GREER...HARMON AND KIOWA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF HOBART...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

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