Severe Thunderstorm Warning 490, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1028 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.UPDATE...
WEAKER CAP TONIGHT PER OUN SOUNDING WITH ABOUT 3500 J/KG ABOVE
8H. AS UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT MAY SEE STORMS BECOME
DEEPER ROOTED. ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK LIKELY
HAD HAIL TO BASEBALLS. STORMS JUST NORTH OF OK BORDER HAVE ALSO
TRENDED UP AS WELL AS A FEW STORMS IN THE PAHNANDLE.  WILL INCREASE
POPS ACROSS AT LEAST WESTERN OK FOR REST OF TONIGHT AND MAY NEED
TO BRING HIGHER POPS FARTHER EAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS
ALONG WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL RESULT IN GOLFBALL TO TENNIS
BALL SIZE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  94  72  97 /  50  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  98  72 100 /  60  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  98  75 100 /  30  10  10   0
GAGE OK           63  94  66  97 /  60  20  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  92  72  94 /  70  30  30  20
DURANT OK         74  95  74  95 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

SIX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1143 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-151000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1143 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS ALL OF NORTHERN... WESTERN... CENTRAL...
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AS WELL AS ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 1 AM.

IMPACTS...
SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND TENDER VEGETATION FROM HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD AGAIN PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAVE CREATED SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL LAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STATIONARY FRONT
MAY ALSO BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. A CAP OR WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOUNDARIES AND SURFACE HEATING MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME THE CAP. MEANWHILE... A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. EVEN
THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TODAY MAY NOT BE AS GREAT
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHER STORMS COULD DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. THESE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES THAT MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BECOMING THE MAIN CONCERN.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY JUN 15.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
CONTINUED MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...AS WELL AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON
MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD FROM TEXAS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE WARM AIR CAP...DISCOURAGING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXWELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1128 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

OKZ007-008-150515-
KAY OK-GRANT OK-
1128 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR NORTHERN GRANT AND KAY
COUNTIES.

A LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS 24
MILES NORTHWEST OF BLACKWELL LAKE AT 1125 PM CDT...MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. IF THE STORM MAINTAINS THIS MOTION...IT WILL
LIKELY AFFECT NORTHERN PARTS OF GRANT AND KAY COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

PEOPLE IN GRANT AND KAY COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

OKZ016-017-022>024-027-034-035-150600-
BLAINE OK-CUSTER OK-CANADIAN OK-CADDO OK-WASHITA OK-GRADY OK-KIOWA OK-
GREER OK-
1208 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BLAINE...CADDO...CANADIAN...
CUSTER...GRADY...GREER...KIOWA AND WASHITA COUNTIES.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE COMMON OVER NEXT 30
TO 45 MINUTES AS THUNDERSTORMS WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA.  AREAS ALONG
AND NEAR I-40 IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST
WINDS THROUGH 1245 AM.

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