Severe Thunderstorm Warning 441, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/...LIFR/IFR CLOUDS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OK THIS
MORNING... WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY MID-DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AFFECTING THE OK
TAF SITES. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KSPS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING... WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009/

DISCUSSION...
WILL UPDATE GRIDS/FORECASTS TO INCREASE POPS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE
ELEVATED MOISTURE H85-7 INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE. CURRENT
TRENDS ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON REGIONAL RADAR...BUT WITH HIGH
CLOUD BASES SOME OF RAIN WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONT TO MOVE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EVENING STORMS WAS LOCATED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND WILL EITHER BE OVERTAKEN BY A
COLD FRONT LATER TODAY OR MAY EVEN DISSIPATE.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT... SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE SW U.S. EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME
UPPER SUPPORT FOR TODAY UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS... BRINGING A
BETTER CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTN.
WITH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE... MODELS
SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING THIS AFTN. AS FOR THE SFC FEATURES... MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE POSITIONS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... THE NAM AND GFS
SEEM TO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A TRIPLE POINT... FRONT... AND
DRYLINE IN OR NEAR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH BOUNDARIES IN/NEAR
THE FA AND SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT... TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN WITH BETTER CHANCES TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN SO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN/NEAR THE FA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN
SHOW THE FRONT BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND MOVING NORTH OF THE FA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALSO SHOW
UPR RIDGE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INFLUENCING THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH UPR RIDGE OVER THE REGION AND FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF
THE AREA... CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAT... THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  66  89  68 /  20  40  20  30
HOBART OK         94  67  91  66 /  20  30  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  71  96  70 /  60  30  30  30
GAGE OK           87  57  87  60 /  30  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     86  65  84  68 /  30  50  10  20
DURANT OK         88  72  92  72 /  60  50  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/25/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER 1 PM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...ROOFTOPS... AND VEGETATION FROM HAIL UP TO
TWO-INCHES IN DIAMETER.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT... AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH FROM
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES...
INCLUDING A WEAK DRYLINE... WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE
POINTS FOR STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE CAPPING INVERSION THAT LIMITED DEVELOPMENT ON
TUESDAY IS NO LONGER PRESENT. MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY JUN 11.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BOUNDARY
CLOSE BY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO STRONG JET
STREAM FLOW...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
THURSDAY MORNING.

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

OKZ016-022-035-101745-
CUSTER OK-WASHITA OK-KIOWA OK-
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CUSTER...KIOWA AND WASHITA
COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM CANUTE TO 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LONE WOLF AT 1230 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

PEOPLE IN CUSTER...KIOWA AND WASHITA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES
OF CLINTON AND HOBART...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

TXZ083-084-101800-
HARDEMAN TX-FOARD TX-
1240 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR FOARD AND HARDEMAN COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GOODLETT TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF CROWELL AT 1240 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN FOARD AND HARDEMAN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
QUANAH...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

30

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