Severe Thunderstorm Warning 398, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1028 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2009

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... SFC DEWPOINTS COMING UP SLOWLY BUT HEATING AND DEEP
MIXING LIKELY TO LIMIT DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT ON SAT. THIS LEAVES
SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED
THIS EVENING IN SOME AREAS BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY SAT AND
LIKELY REMAIN STRONG INTO SAT EVENING. 00Z NAM POSES SOME CONCERN
WITH CONVECTION LIGHTING UP ALONG A MORE WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE 21Z-
00Z SAT AFTERNOON FROM KS TO W OK TO S TX. THINKING IS THAT STORM
INITIATION - IF ANY - WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED DURING THIS TIME DUE
TO CAP BUT ANY ANVIL CIRRUS WILL SPREAD QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM TO
COVER MOST OR ALL OF THE TAF SITES SAT EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2009/

UPDATE...
WE MADE AN EARLIER UPDATE TO PRECIP CHANCE GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING
TO BETTER ALIGN CHANCES WITH EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF THE OUN CWA. THE MID LEVEL CAP STRENGTHENS
AND INSTABILITY DECREASES FROM WEST TO EAST...AND ADDITIONALLY THE
SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS A LITTLE WEAKER AT POINTS FURTHER
EAST. AS SUCH...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. HOWEVER...AS
POINTED OUT BY EARLIER SHIFTS...SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS STORMS DISSIPATE. MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS WAS ADDED TO THE WX GRIDS.

TAYLOR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2009/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS... VFR THROUGHOUT WITH MDT TO STRONG S WINDS STAYING UP
IN STRONG MSLP GRADIENT. ONLY SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTN/EVENING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE EAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE FURTHER
EAST THE ACTIVITY MOVES THE STRONGER THE CAP IT WILL ENCOUNTER. SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. HOT WEEKEND ON TAP
WITH WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST WEST
OF THE FA OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO HAMPER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SAT/SUN AFTN/EVENING IF ENOUGH
HEATING AND/OR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE OCCURS TO OVERCOME THE
CAP. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP... ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
AVAILABLE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE BEST MOISTURE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
FA NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH... BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED EARLIER LIFTS BACK
NORTH INTO THE FA AS A WARM FRONT. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  90  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         65  94  71  95 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  94  72  96 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63  97  65  95 /  30  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     65  90  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         63  90  70  90 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

03/24/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1135 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 4 AM.

IMPACTS...
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
STILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY LEVELS HAVE DECREASED
BUT SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED DUE TO A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS SHOULD
KEEP STORMS GOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND SOME COULD BRIEFLY REACH
SEVERE LEVELS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN CONCERN.

IN ADDITION...HEAT BURSTS MAY OCCUR OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AS THE STORMS DISSIPATE. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A DRASTIC RISE IN TEMPERATURES.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUN 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20  PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THIS WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER KANSAS...
BENEATH A MODERATELY ACTIVE JET STREAM. A DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER
DEFINED FROM FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY RISE TO THE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE HINDERED BY A PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS...COMBINED WITH A STRONG CAP...WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...HOWEVER...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN BREAK THE CAP
AND BECOME MATURE.

ON MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE IN KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST...ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO DROP TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS AND ADA BEFORE SLOWING DOWN
OR STALLING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...THE PRIMARY HAZARD MAY BECOME HEAVY RAIN.

A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON...THROUGHOUT
NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM SATURDAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2009

OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021-022-034-060600-
ROGER MILLS OK-DEWEY OK-BLAINE OK-WOODWARD OK-HARPER OK-WOODS OK-
CUSTER OK-ALFALFA OK-BECKHAM OK-WASHITA OK-MAJOR OK-ELLIS OK-GREER OK-
1232 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF ERICK TO
5 MILES NORTHEAST OF RETROP AT 1229 AM CDT...WERE MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH. HEAVY RAIN AND 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

MUCH FARTHER NORTH OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE
WOODWARD...SEILING AND ALVA AREAS...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE WINDS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET ARE
FORCED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2009

OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021-022-060630-
ROGER MILLS OK-DEWEY OK-BLAINE OK-WOODWARD OK-HARPER OK-WOODS OK-
CUSTER OK-ALFALFA OK-BECKHAM OK-WASHITA OK-MAJOR OK-ELLIS OK-
1259 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDED FROM AROUND SWEETWATER TO JUST WEST OF CORDELL AND CLINTON
AT 1255 AM CDT. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 20 MPH. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...THIS AREA OF RAIN ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE 40 TO 50 MPH WIND
GUSTS. SOME OF THESE WIND GUSTS MAY EXTEND WELL NORTH OF THE RAIN...
ALL THE WAY UP TOWARD WOODWARD...SEILING...ALVA...AND CHEROKEE. THE
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE WINDS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET ARE FORCED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
135 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2009

OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021-022-060700-
ROGER MILLS OK-DEWEY OK-BLAINE OK-WOODWARD OK-HARPER OK-WOODS OK-
CUSTER OK-ALFALFA OK-BECKHAM OK-WASHITA OK-MAJOR OK-ELLIS OK-
135 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...EXTENDED FROM NEAR REYDON TO NEAR CLINTON AT 130 AM
AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH THE RAIN ACTIVITY...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

NEAR AND NORTH OF THE RAIN...ALL THE WAY UP TO BUFFALO AND
WOODWARD...OVER TO SEILING AND ALVA...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE WINDS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET
ARE FORCED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD OCCUR
OVER FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AROUND ROSSTON AND BUFFALO AS SLIGHTLY
STRONG STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE PANHANDLES.