Severe Thunderstorm Warning 347, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
831 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN RESIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ALL
DAY ARE NOW SPREADING WEST INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ARE MOVING TOWARD
DRY BULB VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PART OF
THIS AREA AND WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES WERE BROUGHT LOWER IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH
OBSERVATIONS BEFORE FORECAST TO RISE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE.

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS MAY BRING SOME NEAR SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  87  62  72 /  10  10  40  20
HOBART OK         68  93  57  72 /  20  10  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  95  67  80 /  20   0  20  20
GAGE OK           67  84  52  73 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     63  86  56  69 /  10  20  50  20
DURANT OK         67  86  70  83 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

09/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN PARTS
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES THE AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
ERICK...TO HOBART...TO WICHITA FALLS...AND ARCHER CITY.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 6 PM THROUGH
11 PM.

IMPACTS...
HAIL OF TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND WINDS OF 65 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TORNADOES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA...SHOULD PLAN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
AT MIDDAY...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS TEXAS...FROM JUST WEST OF
FORT WORTH...TO NEAR LUBBOCK. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TO NEAR
AMARILLO...CHILDRESS...AND HENRIETTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
WILL MAINTAIN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER MOST OF OKLAHOMA. IN
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME
MODERATE TO STRONG NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE CAP WILL ALSO BE
STRONG...AND THIS SHOULD NOT ONLY PREVENT STORMS FROM FORMING UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THE CAP WILL ALSO LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 5 PM...FROM
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN...BETWEEN CHILDRESS
AND MIDLAND. DEEP MIXING WILL BE REQUIRED TO OVERCOME THE CAP...SO
THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BASED WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE.
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY
APPROACH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM...WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME BASED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD...AND ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. IF THIS
OCCURS...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. STORM INTENSITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN THE LATE
EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MAY 13.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...50 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE IN NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...INSTABILITY
WILL AGAIN BE QUITE STRONG. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
LIMITED...HOWEVER..BY AN UNUSUALLY WARM MID LEVEL CAP...AS A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. FOR
THESE REASONS...THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT...FROM OKLAHOMA CITY TO THE EAST.
OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER WEST. ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM LATE WEDNESDAY MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS
THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH INTO KANSAS. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT RETURNS TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY.

24/CJS/BURKE

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