Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WELL INTO TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. QUESTION WILL BE
EFFECTS OF WARM-SECTOR CONVECTION THAT IS GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING
FROM ELEVATED TO SURFACE BASED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. IT IS STILL EARLY ENOUGH THAT WE COULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY
PROGRESS NORTHWARD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
ENCOURAGED TO STAY ON TOP OF WEATHER CHANGES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE MORNING THROUGH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WHILE A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY EARLY AFTERNOON, LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM THE WAVE
WILL PROBABLY BE REALIZED NEAR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES DRY LINE.
STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE
LARGE SHEAR IN A STRONGLY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN ON
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A LARGE PART OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAS
RECEIVED FIVE TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS
NOT YET SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TO PLACE ANY FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE COMING NIGHT, IF INDEED ONE WOULD BE NECESSARY. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED DURING THE DAY AS IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHERE
SLOWING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. DURING THE DAY MONDAY ANOTHER
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THE FRONT INTO OK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASE ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT EPISODES
OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY NOT BE SPATIALLY COINCIDENT WHICH WOULD
DIMINISH THE RISK OF LARGE FLOODING. MOST AREAS OF OKLAHOMA ARE
LIKELY TO SEE RAINFALL BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL ON
TUESDAY, POPS INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH
INTO OKLAHOMA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WILL
FINALLY END A CLOUDY AND RAINY WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  64  73  52 /  60  60  40  40
HOBART OK         81  62  76  51 /  60  60  30  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  67  79  57 /  60  60  50  50
GAGE OK           79  55  69  42 /  60  50  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     77  62  72  50 /  60  80  30  10
DURANT OK         81  67  78  63 /  30  60  70  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ004>030-033>040-044-
     045.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>018-021-022.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

30/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1122 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING... WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE HIGH RISK WHICH
COVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA INCLUDING ALL OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. CITIZENS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
PAY EXTRA ATTENTION TO DEVELOPING WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AND REVIEW
SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PROCEDURES.

LOCATION...
THE HIGH RISK IS WEST OF A LINE FROM BLACKWELL... TO CRESCENT... TO
EL RENO... TO LAWTON... TO FREDERICK AND HOLLIS. THE MODERATE RISK
IS EAST OF THE HIGH RISK AREA AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CHANDLER... TO
PAULS VALLEY... TO RINGLING. THE MODERATE RISK INCLUDES ALL OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A SLIGHT RISK COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM NOON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS...
THE SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH. TORNADOES ARE ALSO A CONCERN IN
THE HIGH AND MODERATE RISK AREAS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A DRY LINE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO NEAR THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE LOCATED FROM AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES AS A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
THESE STORMS QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND TORNADOES

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 500 AM CDT MONDAY APR 27.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN AFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS NOW PRESENT OVER THE
AREA. A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. THOUGH
EXACT AREAS CANNOT BE DEFINED AT THIS POINT...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY COULD CAUSE FLOODING IN OTHER
AREAS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
MONDAY MORNING.

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

OKZ033-034-036-261645-
JACKSON OK-GREER OK-HARMON OK-
1119 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GREER...HARMON AND JACKSON
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF GOULD AT 1119 AM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN GREER...HARMON AND JACKSON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 AM     HAIL             5 N ROSSTON             36.88N 99.93W
04/26/2009  E0.88 INCH       HARPER             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT THE LARGEST...BUT HAIL ACCUMULATED
            ENOUGH TO COVER THE GROUND.

&&

LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     HAIL             6 E GOULD               34.67N 99.67W
04/26/2009  M0.75 INCH       HARMON             OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 62 ON THE HARMON-JACKSON COUNTY LINE.

&&

LAMERS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
108 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     HAIL             RETROP                  35.17N 99.37W
04/26/2009  E1.00 INCH       BECKHAM            OK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. TIME IS APPROXIMATE BASED ON
            RADAR AND SPOTTER RECOLLECTION.

&&

LAMERS