Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Norman, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
205 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-261000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
205 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... WITH A SLIGHT
RISK SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM BLACKWELL AND
KINGFISHER... TO LAWTON OKLAHOMA... TO VERNON AND GOODLETT TEXAS...
AND THEN EAST OF A BUFFALO TO ARNETT OKLAHOMA LINE. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO
WICHITA FALLS AND ARCHER CITY TEXAS... AND INCLUDING FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 1 AM.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND STALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM
WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A
DRY LINE WILL INTERSECT THE FRONT IN THE EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON... SURFACE HEATING COULD WEAKEN THE CAP
SUFFICIENTLY SUCH THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE DRY LINE AND
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...WITH VERY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND
DRY LINE INTERSECTION. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOST
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM A COMPLEX AND MOVE ACROSS KANSAS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 500 AM CDT SUNDAY APR 26.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING
RAIN... WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
GULF MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY LINE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OF WEST TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OR NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THIS WILL TAKE PLACE BENEATH A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... WHICH WILL FEATURE SEVERAL
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. MOISTURE... INSTABILITY... AND VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLOODING BY NEXT WEEK... INCLUDING AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING BY MIDWEEK.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY BETWEEN THIS
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEDNESDAY. LOCAL TOTALS GREATER THAN 5 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
SUNDAY.

TAYLOR/MAXWELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
432 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

OKZ021-034-252145-
BECKHAM OK-GREER OK-
432 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BECKHAM AND GREER COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF BRINKMAN AT 432 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
444 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

OKZ021-022-034-252200-
BECKHAM OK-WASHITA OK-GREER OK-
444 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BECKHAM...GREER AND WASHITA
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF DELHI AT 444 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN BECKHAM...GREER AND WASHITA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

MAXWELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
450 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

OKZ010-252200-
WOODWARD OK-
450 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WOODWARD COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF SHARON AT 450 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

OKZ021-022-252215-
BECKHAM OK-WASHITA OK-
500 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BECKHAM AND WASHITA
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF CARTER AT 500 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN BECKHAM AND WASHITA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

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