Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
127 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE ARE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT NEAR THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA THIS EVENING PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
LIFT FOR A LARGER AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAVING BEEN
INITIATED ALONG THE DRY LINE EARLIER. THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL LEAVE OKLAHOMA SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN TWO COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED
BEFORE WEDNESDAY. LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH
THESE DRY FRONTS. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, THE LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE WHEN THE PLAINS WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE HUMID AIRMASS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  67  45  73 /  50  10  10   0
HOBART OK         47  64  42  73 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  69  46  74 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           43  63  40  73 /  40  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     49  65  42  71 /  70  30  10   0
DURANT OK         53  69  48  72 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES THE AREA LOCATED EAST OF A LINE FROM
LAVERNE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...TO ELK CITY...WICHITA FALLS...AND
ARCHER CITY.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 2 PM
THROUGH 11 PM.

IMPACTS...
MINOR HAIL DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...TENDER VEGETATION...AND POSSIBLY
TO ROOFTOPS. HAIL SIZES WILL RANGE UP TO GOLF BALL.

WIND DAMAGE TO TREES...MOBILE HOMES...AND POSSIBLY TO ROOFTOPS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 2 PM UNTIL
11 PM.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND INTO OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A DRYLINE AND PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTERS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THESE SURFACE FEATURES AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND MID 70S.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...SHEAR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS.

STORMS MAY FORM INITIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR THE DRYLINE...WITH OTHER STORMS FORMING
NEAR THE OTHER BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.   THE
STRONGEST LIFT BY THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.  STORMS THAT FORM
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY APR 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER IS  EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT
5 AM SUNDAY.

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