Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
224 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NEWD TONIGHT AND INTO
SE KS BY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS REMAIN WIDESPREAD OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OK THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
NORTH TEXAS INTO WEAK SURFACE LOW IN FAR WCNTRL OK. CLOUDS HAVE
DIMINISHED SOME IN THE SW CORNER OF THE FA AND THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO WARM UP A BIT. THE MODEST HEATING COMBINED WITH COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA HAS INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP. LAPS SHOWS CAPES 500-1000 J/KG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
FAR SW PARTS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE INSTAB AND FAVORABLE SHEAR COULD
SEE A FEW SEVERE HAILERS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
THREAT TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. AS UPPER LOW
WALLOWS NEWD...HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE
NORTH. SOME RESIDUAL WRAPAROUND PRECIP WILL LIKELY LINGER IN
NCNTRL OK INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY COOL ON MONDAY...ESP NORTH AND EAST
WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY. NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM NOW
POINTING TO A MORE CLOSED OFF AND SLOWER MOVING TRACK. WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS BEGINNING IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS. GIVEN THE
SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COULD BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  60  41  72 /  40  20   0   0
HOBART OK         42  60  40  74 /  40  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  45  66  43  77 /  30  10   0   0
GAGE OK           37  63  36  74 /  50  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     40  55  38  69 /  60  50  10   0
DURANT OK         48  60  43  71 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
300 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ERICK AND ELK
CITY... TO CORDELL AND ARDMORE... TO MARIETTA OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO NEAR THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS HEATING WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THE AREA BENEATH A COLD UPPER
LEVEL LOW. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP THAT STORMS FORMING IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER... THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY APR 13.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GREATER THAN ONE INCH COULD RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
SATURDAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
MONDAY.

MAXWELL

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