River Flood Warning 9, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1027 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY CONT TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONT TO MOVE EAST
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK/WESTERN NORTH TX. HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN
A CONCERN WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SOME DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA... WITH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
HANGING TOUGH IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE FA LATER TODAY AND AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE FA TONIGHT. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009/

AVIATION...
A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. IFR CEILINGS ARE INCLUDED
AT KOKC/KOUN/KGAG/KWWR...AND AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES...OCCASIONAL
HEAVY RAIN MAY BRING VISIBILITY DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES. TAFS ARE WRITTEN TO REFLECT THE END OF THE PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON. IFR CEILINGS ARE INCLUDED AT KPNC/KOKC/KOUN LATE
TONIGHT...AND THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE AT OTHER SITES AS WELL.

TAYLOR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS INCREASING ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WE SEE NO REASON WHY
THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED BEGINNING AT 5 AM FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AS FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING REACHED. RECENT
RAINS IN NORTHER OKLAHOMA HAVE LEFT THE SOIL SATURATED AND UNABLE
TO ABSORB MUCH MORE WATER. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF THE CWA SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST FOR A TIME. A DRY LINE WILL SET UP ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS STILL
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY...AND COULD STALL SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE RED RIVER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD
LEAD TO MORE RAIN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA
SOMETIME IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TAYLOR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  64  79  65 /  90  60  20  20
HOBART OK         76  62  83  63 /  60  30  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  66  83  67 /  90  30  10  10
GAGE OK           79  60  81  55 /  20  20  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     74  64  75  63 /  70  70  40  40
DURANT OK         76  66  80  68 / 100  50  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-
     011>013-017>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

22/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
501 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
501 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS.
INSTABILITY...MAINLY ELEVATED...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.  THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS BY THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE
WAKE OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  THIS COMBINED WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BY
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WINDS
TO 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY APR 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR... 80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.  AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY... AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO BOTH LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1017 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     HAIL             LONE GROVE              34.18N 97.26W
04/29/2009  E0.75 INCH       CARTER             OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DW/TY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1031 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 AM     HAIL             ARDMORE                 34.17N 97.13W
04/29/2009  E0.88 INCH       CARTER             OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DW