Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Norman, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND A MODERATELY
STRONG CAP WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH STRONG
WIND SHEAR IN PLACE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. IF SEVERE STORMS DO OCCUR...ONE-INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY MAR 23.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...40 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY...ALONG WITH
A SHARPENING DRYLINE THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WIND
SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER... THE
QUALITY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES ALSO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT... ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO LISTEN FOR FURTHER UPDATES... AND TO BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE MONDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION...WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF ANY
WILDFIRES BEHIND THE DRYLINE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
MONDAY.

MAXWELL