Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Norman, OK

Alfalfa County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Harper County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Major County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Baylor County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Knox County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
243 PM CST MON FEB 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT EAST TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NORTHWEST COAST.  MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST IN NORTHERN STREAM
WHICH WILL USHER COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD.

LOW CLOUDS...HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO WEST COAST SYSTEM. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND FROM OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. NAM
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH INITIAL WAVE AND DOES NOT MIX DRYLINE TO EAST
AS QUICK AS GFS. WILL ACCEPT EC SOLUTION WHICH PLACES DRYLINE FROM
SWO/OKC/ WEST OF SPS BY OZ WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL EXPAND FIRE
WX WATCH A LITTLE EAST AND PLACE WESTERN THIRD OF OK/ N TEXAS IN
RED FLAG WARNING. 8H-7H WINDS BEHIND DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN GUSTS
IN THE 40-45+ RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WILL ALSO ISSUE
WIND ADVISORY GENERALLY WEST OF ENID/EL RENO/BINDER AND NORTH OF
HOLLIS/HOBART/BINGER. HIGHEST IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS FAR WC/NW OK
WHERE LOWEST HUMIDITY AND STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THESE AREAS
HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTREMELY DRY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

PACIFIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE DRYLINE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS ARRIVING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE COOL AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  70  41  54 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         45  76  41  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  74  44  68 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           43  72  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  66  41  53 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         46  65  46  69 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ007-012-018-023-024-038-044.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>007-
     009>012-014>018-021>024-033>035.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014>017-021-022-033>037.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ086-089.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ083>085-
     087-088.

&&

SIX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST MON FEB 16 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 AM CST MON FEB 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY FEB 17.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...ZERO.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTH WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH...WILL BE SEEN
OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL FOR MOTORCYCLISTS AND THOSE IN HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ON TUESDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL DRAW UP A MODIFIED RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING DRY LINE. THE DRY LINE WILL SURGE TO
NEAR INTERSTATE-35 BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE STORMS WILL BE ROOTED IN THE MID LEVELS...
WHICH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND KEEP THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LOW. THIS OUTLOOK COULD CHANGE IF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED DRY LINE MOVEMENT WERE TO SLOW DOWN...ALLOWING MORE TIME
FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE RETURN INTO SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE RISK OF WILDFIRES TUESDAY WILL BECOME SUBSTANTIALLY MORE
FAVORABLE FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES THAT OCCUR. VERY
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE DRY LINE. THIS
WILL BE MOST EVIDENT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BY WEDNESDAY...DRY AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

STRONG WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL ON AREA ROADWAYS DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES AND MOTORCYCLISTS. UNSECURED  OUTDOOR OBJECTS...SUCH AS
LAWN CHAIRS AND TRASH CANS...MAY ALSO BLOW AROUND EASILY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.