Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
849 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT. STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING. STORMS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS. SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING WILL
ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN OVERNIGHT SO WILL CONT WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN WESTERN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY. WILL SEND
UPDATES SHORTLY.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009/

AVIATION...
/0Z TAFS/... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER... KGAG/KWWR WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN DRY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT SE OF MOST TAF
SITES THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009/

DISCUSSION...ANTICIPATING AN ACTIVE EVENING OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS...THE ENTIRE REGION WAS
IN THE WARM SECTOR RELATIVE TO THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING ACROSS THE REGION IN RECENT WEEKS. MOISTURE WAS
DEEP...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COMMON. THE MAXIMUM IN MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND CAP STRENGTH HAD MOVED OUT OVER THE
DRYLINE...MAKING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT LESS LIKELY IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BASED ON SATELLITE
AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES...AND A CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL...WE DO
ANTICIPATE THE CAP WILL WEAKEN ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...WITH A LOWER CHANCE FARTHER SOUTHWEST.

THE NAM HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN ITS RUNS OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS OR MORE. IT PLACES A STRONG MAXIMUM IN PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER DARK TONIGHT...PERHAPS SIGNALING WHERE
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WILL MEET WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET DURING ITS
MAXIMUM INTENSITY. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FLASH
FLOOD WATCH LOOK WELL WARRANTED...ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM COULD ALSO
OCCUR A LITTLE FARTHER EAST DEPENDING ON CAP STRENGTH. THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLOOD WATCH WILL SEE THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS A SECOND TROUGH ANALYZED AT
700-500 MB...THAT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT OF HIGHER
BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MODELS DEPICT A 50 KNOT...NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COLD ADVECTION SYNCED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BRING WINDS TO THE SURFACE FOR AT LEAST A
FEW HOURS. THE EVENT COULD BE MARGINAL...BUT WOULD RATHER COVER IT
IN ANTICIPATION...TO LIGHTEN THE WORKLOAD FOR THE BUSY EVENING SHIFT.

IN THE WAKE OF ACTIVITY TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL FILL THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. FARTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER. ALTHOUGH WE MAINTAIN LOW RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CAP WILL BE REBOUNDING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE MINIMAL OR SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE FOR SUSTAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY THEN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THAT THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE...JUST BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM LATE IN THE
DAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BE THE FINAL IN OUR SERIES OF SYSTEMS...
HOWEVER...AS STRONGER...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEKEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 13/1900 AT BOTH KWWR AND
KGAG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
PUSHING NORTH TO SOUTH... BEGINNING WITH KPNC BY 14/0000 AND BY
14/0200 AFFECTING KOKC...KOUN...KCSM...KLAW. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
GREATLY REDUCED BY +TSRA AND GR IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  71  64  84 /  80  20  20  10
HOBART OK         57  75  64  86 /  30  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  80  69  88 /  30  20  10  10
GAGE OK           47  76  60  83 /  10  10  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     56  71  60  80 /  70  20  30  20
DURANT OK         68  83  68  88 /  70  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ007-008-011>013-
     017>020-023>032-040-042-043.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ009>011-014>017-021-
     022.

TX...NONE.
&&

09/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
608 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-141100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
608 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SURROUNDING THE
MODERATE RISK... IS A SLIGHT RISK AREA THAT ENCOMPASSES THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MOST OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ALVA... TO WEATHERFORD... TO LINDSAY... TO ADA. THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MOST OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

IMPACTS...
LARGE... DAMAGING HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS
EVENING.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH STORMS THIS EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM N
THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THIS EVENING IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE
EVENING. THROUGH THE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A LARGE
COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

WIND SPEEDS MAY BE ADEQUATE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS... WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE COLD FRONT. IT IS THESE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 14.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER
ALONG STREAMS AND IN OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS. THE GREATEST THREAT OF
FLOODING IS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THE GROUND
REMAINS NEARLY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT
FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THIS MAY RESULT
IN FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER ALONG STREAMS AND IN OTHER LOW-LYING
AREAS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
5 AM THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STERLING                34.75N 98.17W
05/13/2009                   COMANCHE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTING SOME WIND DAMAGE IN THE CITY
            OF STERLING...NO FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

LAMERS

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