Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.AVIATION...
FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT POST
FRONTAL VFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA IS USHERING IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS ALSO PRESENT
WHICH HAS THUS FAR PREVENTED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AS FAR AS INITIATING
STORMS NEAR THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS HIGH...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE CWA BY MID EVENING.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR NORTH ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK PUSH OF COOLER AIR. A FRONTAL ZONE
NEAR 850 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES BEING HIGHEST OVER OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH NOT EVERYONE MAY RECEIVE RAIN...A GENERALLY
COOL AND CLOUDY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE GFS FORECAST WAS
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THROUGHOUT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASED FROM
PRIOR VALUES ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED.

TAYLOR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  67  52  64 /  30  20  30  40
HOBART OK         56  64  49  65 /  20  10  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  69  53  67 /  40  30  20  30
GAGE OK           44  63  43  65 /   0  10  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     50  65  53  64 /  10  10  20  40
DURANT OK         64  69  59  71 /  60  50  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1154 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SEYMOUR AND VERNON
TEXAS... TO DUNCAN AND PAULS VALLEY... TO SEMINOLE OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER 4 PM
THROUGH THIS EVENING... AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS CAUSING DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...
VEGETATION... AND ROOFS AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD EXPECT SEVERE OPERATIONS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP LEADING TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE VERY LARGE
HAIL... STRONG WINDS... AND HEAVY RAIN.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY MAY 9.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS LEFT THE GROUND SATURATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
SATURDAY.

MAXWELL

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