Small Craft Advisory 8, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1224 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THEN TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
WILL MOVE ACROSS ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. UNSETTLED
WEATHER REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS IT
DOES SO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING OPAQUE HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY IF NOT RISING SLIGHTLY DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. 18Z MAV GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN 12Z GUIDANCE AND WAS GENERALLY ACCEPTED. DID TWEAK DOWNWARD
OVER LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ZONES WHERE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO SNOW/ICE COVER...LIGHT
WINDS AND CURRENT MINIMUM IN OPAQUE CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS BEGIN TO PHASE TUESDAY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM STILL DOMINATE. DEEPER NORTHERN LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH STRONG COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE TUESDAY. MEANWHILE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AGAIN MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE
HANDLING OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE SOUTHERN LOW REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA...AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...40N 70W.
MOISTURE ON THE BACK OF THIS LOW IN THE ECMWF AND GFS LOOKS
OVERDONE...AND EASTERN SECTIONS WILL NOT SEE MUCH FROM THIS SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE NORTHERN LOW STILL THE DEEPER LOW WITH ACCOMPANYING STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH 00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE RAIN MOST AREAS AND AS COLD
AIR MOVES IN TRANSITION TO SNOW. WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW WELL EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA. QPF IS UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THE NORTHERN LOW...SO ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE. THIS LOW THEN USHERS IN THE FIRST
WAVE OF ARCTIC AIR...AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER TEENS AND MID WESTS WITH A STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
FLOW. HIGHS TUESDAY USED MAV AND FWC BLEND...AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY USED COLDER MAV AND NAM NUMBERS...AND CUT A DEGREE OR SO
BELOW.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WITH EASTERN US UPPER
THROUGH IN PLACE NEXT ALBERTA CLIPPER QUICKLY MOVES TOWARD THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AND BY EVENING SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ZONES. CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW. AGAIN LITTLE QPF WITH THE
SYSTEM.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL THURSDAY AND AS THE
CLIPPER DEPARTS AND SECOND SURGE...AND EVEN COLDER AIRMASS...OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND COLD TROUGH IN THE EAST.
POLAR VORTEX MEANDERING NEAR HUDSON BAY AT THIS TIME WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
QUEBEC...PRODUCING BITTERLY COLD TEMPS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...
FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED COLD THROUGH MON.

AFTER ANY LINGERING SNOWS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CLIPPER COME TO AN
END OUT EAST EARLY THU EVENING...ARCTIC AIR SHOULD SURGE IN ON GUSTY
NW WINDS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 10 ABOVE IN MIDTOWN...TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST ELSEWHERE...TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THESE TEMPS IN
COMBINATION WITH 10-15 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS COULD YIELD WIND CHILLS
OF -5 TO -10 ACROSS THE BOARD LATE THU NIGHT...AND PERHAPS DIPPING
AS LOW AS -15 RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MAX TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS ON FRI...THEN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
TAKE PLACE VIA LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY FRESH
SNOW PACK FROM THU...SO MINS FRI NIGHT SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THOSE OF THU NIGHT...DROPPING TO 0 TO 5 BELOW OVER MOST OF THE
INTERIOR/LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE...WITH
WIND CHILLS AGAIN RUNNING -5 TO -10.

THE HARSHEST OF THE COLD WX SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END ON SAT AS
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
POSITION OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM RIPPLING THROUGH
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND PASSING ACROSS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS
FASTER/FARTHER NORTH AND ECMWF SLOWER/FARTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT DID
NOT GET FANCY AND BROAD-BRUSHED LOW CHANCE POP FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SUNDAY...LINGERING OUT EAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
ONE LAST REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
BY MON NIGHT...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS COLD AS OPERATIONAL GFS
PREDICTS...AS THE GEFS MEAN/ECMWF SUGGEST THE ASSOCIATED POLAR
VORTEX SHOULD REMAIN IN QUEBEC AND NOT DROP ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS BECOMING BKN AROUND
20 KFT THIS EVENING FROM W TO E...WITH HIGH DECK MAINTAINING ITSELF
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL MID DECK...REFLECT
AT KHPN PER CURRENT OB. CEILINGS LOWER TO LOW END VFR AROUND 00Z
FROM W TO E. COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT TUE EVENING...BUT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM ANY PRECIP WHICH
DOES FALL.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOME SOUTH AT 5-10 KT AROUND SUNRISE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AROUND 00Z TUE...AND THEN TO THE WEST WITH THE
FRONT AROUND MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
GUSTY WINDS FROM LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
ARE PROBABLE ON THU...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...AND AGAIN ON SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR IF ANY CHANGES THIS UPDATE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

SCA LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WHICH PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THEN TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT WE COULD SEE A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. FOR NOW...WILL JUST KEEP IT AT HIGH END SCA
CRITERIA.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN GALES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM...OTHERWISE...SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO SAT.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING
SPRAY VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ONCE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH...SEAS
PROBABLY HIGH ENOUGH...BUT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS MARGINAL AS
WELL ARE SUSTAINED WINDS TO A LESSER DEGREE. OVERALL IT APPEARS THE
BETTER CHANCE WOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

OCEAN GALES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CLIPPER THU
NIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...
AND PERHAPS LINGERING ON THE OCEAN INTO FRI NIGHT. QUIET THEREAFTER
THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO LIGHT QPF EVENTS...WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH EACH...ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW. NO FLOODING PROBLEMS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE PROLONGED COLD PERIOD MIDWEEK ON...ICE WILL BUILD ON THE
AREA RIVERS. AS A RESULT RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL RECEDE OR
EXPERIENCE LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT RISES IF ICE JAMS DEVELOP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BG/MET/PFM
NEAR TERM...PFM
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...PFM
MARINE...BC/BG/PFM
HYDROLOGY...MET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
510 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-141015-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
510 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ335-338-345-141015-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
510 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-340-350-353-355-141015-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
510 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.