Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS New York, NY

000 
WWUS51 KOKX 242056
SVSOKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
456 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

NYC071-242106-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-090524T2115Z/
ORANGE NY-
456 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ORANGE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

STORMS OVER ORANGE COUNTY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4160 7430 4157 7396 4151 7399 4145 7399
      4141 7397 4121 7415 4127 7454 4131 7463
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 276DEG 11KT 4151 7410 4133 7431

$$

MALOIT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
409 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE FRONT MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE DESTABILIZED AS EARLY MORNING CLOUDS CLEARED. SURFACE CAPE
1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES 0 TO -4. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN TOWARD 00Z. WILL KEEP ENHANCED WORDING
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. WITH FRONT SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCES UNTIL 12Z MONDAY. MAINLY FOLLOWED NAM WITH TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH SLOW TO PUSH INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE NAM AND GFS FAIRLY
SIMILAR. THEN THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER TO MOVE THE HIGH OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NAM
KEEPING THE HIGH NOSED INTO THE AREA. WITH THE ECMWF SIMILAR TO
THE NAM HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE NAM AND ECMWF. WITH THE APPROACH OF
WARM FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS WESTERN
ZONES. AND KEPT EASTERN ZONES DRY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY FOLLOWED NAM/MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT AND MAJOR SHORTWAVE. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALREADY
IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO THE POPS HAVE BEEN TAILORED TO FIT THIS
SCENARIO...WITH POPS LOWERING A BIT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. S-SE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE KEEPS TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL...BUT MAY ALSO HELP ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION.

COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY BRINGS DRIER...BUT NOT NECESSARILY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION. A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR FOLLOWS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR VERY NICE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY.

USED A BLEND OF HPC/GMOS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF FOR THE MOST PART WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
INSTABILITY BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS...AND DO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT KSWF FIRST...AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NYC METRO TERMINALS AFTER 20Z. WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY
NEAR THE COAST WITH SOME SEA BREEZE COMPONENT...AND WEST SOUTHWEST
AWAY FROM THE COAST. SPEEDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS.

OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTMS.
STRONGER STORMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

TIMING FOR CONVECTION 20Z TO 03Z...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. DO EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCAL
IFR IN FOG AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT/LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION. WINDS DO TURN TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AND SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY WITH SCT CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VFR MON AND MON NIGHT
VFR...WITH SUB VFR POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT TUE:
SUB-VFR AT TIMES WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COMING TO AN END LATE TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS STILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT AND POSSIBLY SMALL
HAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THEN A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY
REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW.

WED THRU FRI...WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS WED WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY. E/SE WINDS TURN
TO THE S/SW...WITH SEAS RUNNING AROUND 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS...1 TO 2 FT ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NW LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE BASIN AVERAGES OF ABOUT ONE QUARTER INCH. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN MINOR FLOODING.
DRY WEATHER LATER THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS UP TO A
HALF INCH POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BS/PW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1205 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

CTZ005-006-009-010-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>078-080-251000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-
HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
1205 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE POSSIBLE THREATS
FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ007-008-011-012-NYZ079-081-251000-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1205 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ335-338-345-353-355-251000-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1205 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WINDS GUSTS OVER 35 KT AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE POSSIBLE
THREATS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-340-350-251000-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
1205 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KT AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
250 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

NYZ067-241945-
ORANGE-
250 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 248 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR UNIONVILLE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF WARWICK...
AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY...INCLUDING UNIONVILLE...WARWICK AND
GREENWOOD LAKE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
311 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

CTZ009-NYZ069>071-242015-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-ROCKLAND-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER-
311 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FAIRFIELD...ROCKLAND AND
WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...

AT 311 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR UPPER NYACK...OR NEAR OSSINING...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN FAIRFIELD...ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...INCLUDING
HAVERSTRAW...NEW CITY...UPPER NYACK...NYACK...OSSINING...NORTH
TARRYTOWN...TARRYTOWN...HAWTHORNE...WHITE PLAINS AND HARRISON...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
349 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

CTZ008-242030-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
349 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTY...

AT 348 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WILLIMANTIC...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTY...INCLUDING LEBANON...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
420 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

NYZ067-242115-
ORANGE-
420 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 418 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MONTGOMERY TO 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF UNIONVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WALDEN
TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF MIDDLETOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR MONTGOMERY BY 425 PM.
  NEAR WALDEN BY 435 PM.
  NEAR FLORIDA BY 445 PM.
  NEAR WARWICK BY 450 PM.
  NEAR CHESTER BY 455 PM.
  NEAR GARDNERTOWN BY 505 PM.

INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40
MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES AN
HOUR...IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. THIS COULD CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS... AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

MALOIT