Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
309 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #559 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
TRI-STATE AREA UNTIL 7 PM.

DEEP UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN NY STATE. ALONG WITH THIS LOW...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. ML
CAPE VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH...GENERALLY 700-1000 J/KG WITH VALUES
OVER 2500 J/KG OVER EASTERN CT. THE LIFTED INDEX IS ALSO AROUND
-3C...BUT APPROACHING -7C ACROSS CT.

DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED IN SEVERE STORMS...AND
WILL EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. ALSO...HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

WILL GENERALLY CARRY LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING...TAPERING
TO CHANCE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS MAIN UPPER ENERGY
MOVES EAST. ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
CT LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED...WILL EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH NYC AND SURROUNDING AREAS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WED
BEFORE DEPARTING WED NIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON...AND WITH COLD POOL
ALOFT AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...COULD HAVE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY
CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

STORMS TAPER OFF WED NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE
REGION ON THU. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM ON THU...BUT GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THIS IS REASONABLE. DRY AND MILD FRI AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...THEN A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES AND SFC COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
STARTING ON SAT. BASED ON LATEST HPC/ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE...WILL
HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON...THEN PRECIP LINGERS
THROUGH SUN. WEAK HIGH PRES OVERSPREADS THE REGION MON...THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TAP FOR TUE.

WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS TRACKED THRU KISP-KLDJ. ALL TAFS HAVE BEEN
AMD AS OF 19Z TO INDICATE PREVAILING N/NE WINDS BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY.

TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE OF ACTIVITY.

ACROSS THE METRO...TSTMS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN PA.
ADDITIONALLY...TSTM INITIATION OVER THE REGION IS POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED TEMPO FOR TSRA. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE E/ENE
AROUND 15KT.

AFTER CONVECTION DIES DOWN AFT 00Z...LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS
WINDS GO LGT. FOR NOW FEW020 USED EXCEPT KGON WHERE MVFR CIGS
FCST.

LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT WED MRNG WITH SCT-BKN CU IN THE AFTN. ISOLD-SCT
TSTMS POSSIBLE...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
TODAY ATTM.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES WED NIGHT THRU FRI. VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR OR LOWER IN
EARLY MRNG FOG/STRATUS. COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT WITH CHANCES FOR
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #559 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM.

TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF
LATE TONIGHT. TSTMS THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS
RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 KT AND LARGE HAIL.

OTHERWISE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THU. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS FRI...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN AREAL QPF OF
0.25-0.50 ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT...AND UP TO 0.25 ELSEWHERE.
LOCAL QPF COULD BE DOUBLE THAT IN STRONGER TSTMS...CAUSING
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1108 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2009

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-081000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1108 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-081000-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1108 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

MPS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     HAIL             NAUGATUCK               41.49N 73.05W
07/07/2009  E0.88 INCH       NEW HAVEN          CT   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
146 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0143 PM     HAIL             3 E WATERBURY           41.56N 72.97W
07/07/2009  E0.75 INCH       NEW HAVEN          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 PM     HAIL             3 E WATERBURY           41.56N 72.97W
07/07/2009  E0.88 INCH       NEW HAVEN          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
221 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 S NORWALK             41.06N 73.42W
07/07/2009  M40 MPH          ANZ335             CT   MESONET

&&

JM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
224 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2009

CTZ007-008-010>012-071915-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN
NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
224 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MIDDLESEX...SOUTHEASTERN NEW
HAVEN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW LONDON COUNTIES...

AT 221 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH MADISON TO
GUILFORD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DURHAM TO GUILFORD...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR NORTH MADISON BY 230 PM.
  NEAR KILLINGWORTH BY 235 PM.
  NEAR CLINTON BY 240 PM.
  NEAR CHESTER BY 245 PM.
  NEAR OLD SAYBROOK BY 255 PM.
  NEAR NORTH LYME BY 300 PM.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
312 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2009

CTZ008-012-072000-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
312 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NEW LONDON COUNTY...

AT 312 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF WATERFORD...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF NEW LONDON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR GALES FERRY BY 320 PM.
  NEAR LEDYARD CENTER BY 325 PM.
  5 MILES SOUTH OF PRESTON BY 335 PM.
  5 MILES SOUTH OF VOLUNTOWN BY 350 PM.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.