Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
322 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. ANOTHER SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...ENSURING UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LEFTOVER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
PATCHY FOG. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WILL SLOWLY PASS TO THE EAST AS NEXT CLOSED LOW DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY...BUT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CAPES DOWN
SOMEWHAT IN SPITE OF COLD AIR ALOFT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WANES SATURDAY EVENING...AND EXPECT
SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AS CWA REMAINS BETWEEN WEAKENING
LOW...AND UPSTREAM LOW. WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN.

MINIMAL POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MONDAY AS MODELS DO OUTPUT
SCT CONVECTION IN PERSISTENT UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AGAIN...COVERAGE
QUITE LOW...SO MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

AS FOR TEMPS...UNDERCUT MAVS AND LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET NUMBERS
DUE TO CONVECTION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST.
FEEL TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

A SLIGHT WARMUP POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AT
LEAST CHANCE POPS EACH DAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS AT OR NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHORT WAVE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN PA AND
SRN TIER OF NY WILL DROP SE AND CROSS NYC AREA TERMINALS 21-01Z.
SUB-VFR EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. STRONG TO LOCALIZED SEVERE CONVECTION WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

IFR CEILINGS ACROSS COASTAL CT AND LI WILL MIX OUT TEMPORARILY AS
CONVECTION MOVES APPROACHES. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT IN THE
MIXED LAYER. FOG/HAZE WILL REDEVELOP QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING VLIFR CONDS
ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH MID MORNING SAT...ESPECIALLY AT KGON.

OUTLOOK /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAT-TUE:...VFR...WITH SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCT TSRA/SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NEAR 5 FOOT SEAS IN A SE SWELL. WAVE WATCH
SEEMS TOO HIGH INITIALLY...SO UNDERCUT OUTPUT BY A FOOT. FEEL SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT...AS WIND DRIVEN WAVES NEGLIGIBLE.

COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE WATERS VICINITY FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

UNSETTLED WEATHER THE MAIN THREAT FOR MARINE INTERESTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS EVENING...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION). AREA WIDE EXPECT BASIN AVERAGE
AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES FROM CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. RELATIVELY WET PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DAILY...MOST AREAS WILL
NOT RECEIVE RAIN EVERY DAY...BUT THOSE THAT DO COULD RECEIVE
0.25-0.5 INCHES. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO KEEP AREA WATER TABLES
FROM RECEDING FROM RELATIVELY HIGH CURRENT LEVELS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...PW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
247 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-
NYZ067>081-271345-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-
HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
247 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
241 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-270200-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
241 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10PM FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AFTER 400 PM ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AS A
RESULT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE REGION
IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. TRAVELERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES. STREETS AND HIGHWAYS MAY BECOME FLOODED IN
THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             NEWBURGH                41.50N 74.02W
06/26/2009  E1.00 INCH       ORANGE             NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OTISVILLE               41.47N 74.54W
06/26/2009                   ORANGE             NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON WIRES

&&

JMC