Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
314 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HURRICANE BILL
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE LATEST AND MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON BILL...REFER TO
FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #726/727 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. IN ADDITION...A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING...
LASTING THROUGH SUN. SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR NYC AS THE HEAT INDEX RANGES FROM 95
TO 100. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS TEMPS DROP IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND THE HEAT INDEX WILL DROP BELOW 95 BY 8 PM.

LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SEVERE STORMS. INSTABILITY VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH ML MUCAPES
OVER 3000 J/KG AND THE LIFTED INDEX BETWEEN -5 AND -6 C. BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ALLOWED TEMPS TO SOAR NEAR 90...COMBINED WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. PWATS ARE OVER 2 INCHES.

COLD FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY MOVES WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL FOCUS AS THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS
BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY SAT NIGHT. AIRMASS REMAINS
SATURATED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S AND PWATS OVER 2
INCHES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AT THE LEAST. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

REGARDING TROPICS...HURRICANE BILL CONTINUES ON A TRACK WELL EAST
OF THE FCST AREA...BUT DANGEROUS SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. PLEASE SEE MARINE AND
COASTAL FLOODING/TIDE SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAIL.

FRONT/UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUN...AND CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH PRES MOVES NEARLY
OVERHEAD ON MON...BRINGING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIRMASS TO
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT/TUE WITH COOLER AND
MUCH DRYER AIR. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MID-WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BEHIND THAT
FRONT...A MUCH COOLER AND DRYER AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE FCST AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN PA IMPACTING LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TERMINALS WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NYC TERMINALS
AT 18Z.

MAIN LINE WITH POTENTIAL HIGH WIND GUSTS (UP TO 50 KT) MOVING INTO
THE NYC TERMINALS AROUND 20Z. CONVECTION LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATES WITH AIRMASS STABILIZING
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION MAY LINGER AT KSWF OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
REMAINING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

INVERTED TROF SETTING UP ON SAT ALONG THE EAST COAST...WELL WEST
OF HURRICANE BILL...LIKELY TO FOCUS ADDI TONAL CONVECTION ON SAT.
CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS SETS UP NOT HIGH...BUT WEST OF NYC
APPEARS MORE LIKELY. THUS...A SIMILAR ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH SUB
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TERMINALS...MAINLY AFTER 18Z WITH A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL ZONES.

OTHERWISE SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS LI AND COASTAL CT THIS
AFT. PRIMARILY VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS. KSWF LIKELY TO STAY SUB VFR OVERNIGHT WITH ONGOING PCPN.

SLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFT...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT AND THEN BACK AROUND TO THE SE
AFTER 12Z IN RESPONSE TO SFC HI PRES BUILDING NORTH AHEAD OF
HURRICANE BILL.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING: SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SWELLS RUNNING AROUND 5 FT WITH 15 SEC PERIODS. WITH APPROACH
OF HURRICANE BILL ON SAT...SEAS ON THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD
TO 13-17 FT...WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT NEAR SHORE. HIGH SEAS WILL EVEN
SPILL OVER INTO EASTERN LI SOUND...AS SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT
SAT/SAT NIGHT. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
FOR EASTERN LI SOUND STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
DUE TO THESE ROUGH CONDITIONS...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE OCEAN FACING COASTS OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THERE
IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS...AS THE OCEAN BEACHES WILL BE QUITE
DANGEROUS.

SCA WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS BILL PULLS AWAY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN LI
SOUND AND ANZ350. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH MON. HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
THROUGH SAT AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PWATS ARE OVER 2 INCHES. IN GENERAL...BETWEEN
1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL...BUT IN TRAINING OF STORMS...QPF
TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES AROUND 1 FT ARE EXPECTED DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES
TONIGHT...PRODUCING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS NY HARBOR AND
THE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5 FT ARE
EXPECTED SAT/SAT NIGHT...POSSIBLY THROUGH SUN MORNING. WILL ISSUE
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN FACING SHORES...INCLUDING NY
HARBOR... THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
INTO SUN IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

EXPECT SURF HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO 4
TO 7 FT ON SAT...AND THEN TO 8 TO 10 FT WITH HIGHER SETS SAT NIGHT
AND SUN. HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUN.

IN ADDITION...THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LOCAL WASH OVERS AND BEACH EROSION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>076.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ072-074>077-080-081.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ075>077-080-
     081.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>076.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002>006-
     011.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPS

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