Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
339 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLEX SFC/LL PATTERN ON LATEST ANALYSIS. MAIN SFC/LL LOW NOW
ACROSS LIT...WITH WEAK SFC WAVE NEAR PAH. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK UPPER IMPULSE. JET STRUCTURE
ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS ML JET CUTS INTO NORTHWEST MS. THUS
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY WEST OF I-65.

SFC/LL LOW AND VERY CLOSE TRAILING NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH/UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...PASSING JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE MID-STATE. THIS WILL DRAG SOUTHERN WARM FRONT UP AND ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING INCREASING INSTABILITY FURTHER AS WELL AS
INCREASING SHEAR. THUS AS THESE LOWS MOVE...WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THEN EITHER CONTINUE OR POSSIBLY REFIRE
JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATER WHICH WILL MOVE BY BETWEEN 06-12Z.

WITH FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH JUST EAST AROUND 12Z...A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO LINGER BACK ACROSS THE EAST IN THE MORNING...BUT THEN CLEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

THINGS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ON SUNDAY...YET ANOTHER
PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT ALSO
IS SUPPORTED BY PRETTY GOOD UPPER SYSTEM AND THAT WILL LEAVE ANOTHER
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE IN THE DAY.

DEEP UPPER TROUGHING THEN SETTLES ON THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BRINGING A BIG COOL DOWN TO THE REGION. THIS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BRING POOL OF MOISTURE DOWN WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
AS WELL AS MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

DRY WX RETURNS WEDNESDAY BUT THEN THE NEXT IS ALREADY ON THE DOOR STEP
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE WEST
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ON THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      49  59  40  70 / 100  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    47  58  37  72 / 100  10  10  10
CROSSVILLE     45  57  38  67 / 100  30  10  10
COLUMBIA       49  60  40  72 / 100  10  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   50  62  40  73 / 100  10  10  10
WAVERLY        48  59  38  71 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
541 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031045-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
541 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG SPRING STORM IS MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS. A COMBINATION
OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE MIDSTATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HEAVIEST STORMS WILL LIKELY ENTER THE
WESTERN MIDSTATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MOST COMMON THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE MIDSTATE ON SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS
ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. A GOOD PUNCH OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

JLM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
135 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

TNZ056>058-060>062-075-077>079-093>095-021900-
BEDFORD-COFFEE-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MARSHALL-MAURY-
PERRY-RUTHERFORD-WARREN-WAYNE-
135 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

AT 130 PM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN
SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE
NORTH THROUGH WAYNE...PERRY...LEWIS COUNTIES. IF YOU LIVE IN
SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE...STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS AND WARNING SHOULD THEY BECOME NECESSARY.

BOYD