Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
631 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING CEILINGS...VSBYS...AND LOCATION
TIMING/DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY BNA...OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU 07/12Z.
DESPITE 50% ZONE COVERAGE FOR AREAS INCLUDING BNA/CSV...DO NOT
FEEL CONFIDENT IN CAT OR TEMPO WORDING SHWRS/TSTMS...EXPECT TEMPO
CSV 06/21Z TO 07/01Z WHERE POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE
...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING...COULD INITIATE TSTMS.
BELIEVE VCSH/VCTS BEST BOTH BNA/CSV PER LOCATION TIMING/DEVELOPMENT
CONCERNS. THUS...VFR BNA THRU 07/09Z...THEN MVFR VSBY. VFR CSV...EXCEPT
TEMPO MVFR VSBY..THRU 07/02Z...THEN MVFR VSBYS...07/09Z CEILINGS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2009/

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AS A SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS NOSES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON THE 305K TO 315K SURFACES. 00Z SOUNDING
FROM BNA SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH THE CU
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITING FACTOR FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS MAY BE LACK OF
FORCING OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS MODELS SHOW THE FAVORED AREAS LIE
TO THE NORTH. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS AS BETTER
COVERAGE WAS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS
DUE TO THE EXPECTED LACK OF UPWARD MOTION...BUT KEPT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLATEAU...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MONDAY WHEN TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA.
GFS/NAM GUIDANCE SHOW A FAVORED PROXIMITY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS
A WEAK SPEED MAX MOVES OUT OF THE TROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY. COVERAGE
MAY EVEN BE ABSENT OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY LATE MONDAY GIVEN THE
MOISTURE FIELDS AND VEERING WINDS. CLEARING TRENDS ACROSS THE WEST
HALF MAY ALLOW FOR SIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPS...MID-UPPER
80S...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31/JBW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2009

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
500 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

31/JBW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2009

TNZ007-008-026-027-061745-
ROBERTSON-SUMNER-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SPRINGFIELD...GALLATIN...ASHLAND CITY...
KINGSTON SPRINGS...NASHVILLE
1139 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2009

...STRONG STORM IN ROBERTSON COUNTY...

AT 1135 AM A STRONG STORM WAS INDICATED BY DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
FROM SPRINGFIELD TO CROSSPLAINS IN ROBERTSON COUNTY. THIS STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
RAINFALL RATE OF 1 INCH PER HOUR

BOYD