Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Nashville, TN

000 
WWUS54 KOHX 042212
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
512 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

TNC043-081-042230-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0249.000000T0000Z-090704T2230Z/
HICKMAN TN-DICKSON TN-
512 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN DICKSON AND NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES...

AT 511 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF DICKSON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BURNS BY 520 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3596 8756 3598 8754 3602 8754 3612 8731
      3596 8726 3586 8722 3586 8746
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 256DEG 33KT 3597 8739

$$

BOYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
435 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
-6 LIFTED INDICES STRUNG OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AS FAR EAST AS I65. ONE STORM IN SOUTHWEST
SUMNER CO HAS 60 DBZ SUSPENDED AROUND 11K. THIS RIGHT ON EASTERN EDGE
OF BEST LIS. STORM MOVEMENT FROM 270/30KTS.

BOYD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ON THE SFC ANALYSIS CHARTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IL...SW IN AND ALONG THE OH RIVER. BEST SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEASTWARD. BEST PRECIP ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE 850 MB BOUNDARY. OF ADDITIONAL NOTE...PVA CORRIDOR TO
SET UP GENERALLY SW OF THE MID STATE. THUS...ALL IN ALL...THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MID STATE AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE MID STATE.

SFC LOW LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED FROM THE PVA CORRIDOR AND THUS...THE
SFC LOW WILL WEAKEN SOME AFTER 06Z GIVEN THE LACK OF IMMEDIATE UPPER
SUPPORT.

NEVERTHELESS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH BUT NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT PRESSURE FALLS DO EXIST IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS
THROUGH...ENERGY ALONG THE SFC FRONT BECOMES MORE ELONGATED THEREBY
REDUCING THE ASSOCIATED SFC FORCING. SO...HEAVIER PRECIP OVER A
GENERAL AREA APPEARS TO BE ABSENT FROM THE EQUATION ONCE AGAIN.

OVERALL...CATEGORICAL POPS WILL STILL BE INCLUDED TONIGHT GIVEN THE
APPROACHING MOISTURE AXIS WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TOMORROW. IT JUST
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE MID STATE.

AS FOR TIMING OF TONIGHTS ACTIVITY. PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL
INCREASE WITH TIME WITH THE CATEGORICAL IMPACT GEARED TOWARD THE
AFTER MIDNIGHT HOURS. TOUGH CALL FOR THE FIREWORKS ACROSS THE AREA
BUT I WILL INCLUDE A CHC OF SHOWER AND TSTMS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE...OF COURSE...BEING ACROSS THE NW ZONES. FOR BNA IN
PARTICULAR...RAINFALL MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 9 OR 10 PM.

SFC FRONT TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW WITH TIME SO WE WILL
SEE THE FRONT SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER AS IT REACHES NORTHERN AL
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP 20-40 POPS GOING FOR SOUTH MIDDLE
TN THROUGH MON NT AND A SLT CHC NORTH THROUGH SUN NT.

FOR TEMPS...MAV LOOKS TOO COOL FOR LOWS AS THAT MODEL APPEARS A BIT
SLUGGISH IN REGARD TO THE INCREASING DEWPOINT TREND. WILL THEREFORE
GO ABOVE THE MAV MINS.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO LEAN TOWARD TN TOWARD THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER
IN PLACE AS A SFC RIDGE CONTROLS. THEN...AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST...LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH WARMER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPS...COMPLIMENTS OF THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE.

AT THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED...WEAK NW FLOW MAY SLIP A BOUNDARY
ACROSS US. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A SLT CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO ABOVE THE MEX AS IT CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE TOWARD CLIMO WHILE THE EURO AND THE GFS POINT TOWARD
INCREASING HEIGHTS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
523 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-051030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
523 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID STATE THIS EVENING...AND SWING
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY...AND A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
BETWEEN ONE AND ONE AND A HALF INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOOD PROBLEMS
MAY DEVELOP DURING THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON
SUNDAY...AND A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

19