Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1205 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT COMPLEX UPSTREAM CONTINUES TO PUSH E-SE. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
SQUALL LINE LIKELY TO CLIP THE NERN CWA...BUT MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW LITTLE SWARD DEVELOPMENT. FCST PD WILL BE LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF SMALL CHANCE/DURATION OF AFTERNOON TSRA AND/OR LIGHT
EARLY MORNING BR EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT THE SVR TSTM WATCH FOR OUR NW COUNTIES. I
ALSO INCREASED POPS TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE WATCH AREA. AS AIRMASS
OVER MIDDLE TN BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...COMPLEX TO OUR WEST
WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME OF ITS STRENGTH AS IT PUSHES EAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
531 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-171030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
531 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI TO LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS WILL POSSIBLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF SO...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE MID STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

17/MAG