Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Nashville, TN

000 
WWUS54 KOHX 151912
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
212 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

TNC149-189-151930-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0196.000000T0000Z-090615T1930Z/
RUTHERFORD TN-WILSON TN-
212 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN WILSON AND NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES...

AT 210 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE 
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF WALTERHILL...OR 12 
MILES NORTHEAST OF MURFREESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8609 3596 8613 3597 8615 3594 8616
      3593 8615 3587 8617 3596 8649 3613 8642
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 287DEG 20KT 3599 8624

$$

LAROSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
908 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COVERING PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS, AND WESTERN KENTUCKY, WITH MODELS PROJECTING MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MORNING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH THE FOLLOWING PARAMETERS:

PRECIPITABLE WATER: 1.72 INCHES
K-INDEX: 32
LIFTED INDEX: -7.8
CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY: 3,111 J/KG

THE GOOD THING IS, THE 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS ONLY 47,
INDICATING VERY LITTLE TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS, SO THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL IS EXTREMELY LOW. BELIEVE THE PRIMARY THREATS TODAY WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THE VIL-OF-THE-DAY IS ONLY 51,
INDICATING THAT MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY COOL, THUS
INCREASING OUR INSTABILITY.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS BROKEN DECK OF CIRRUS FILTERING
ACROSS THE MID STATE FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM, SO THIS WILL
SHAVE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS AS
OF 14Z.

SPC HAS KEPT ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT, SO BELIEVE WE MAY SEE MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS AND THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MAKES ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
526 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-161030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
526 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE ON TUESDAY...AGAIN WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

17/MAG