Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
355 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUN)...
THREE DISTINCE AREAS OF MCS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONGEST
CENTER NORTH IN THE OH VLY. S/W ASSOCIATED WITH IT HEADING
NORTHEAST SO NOT A FACTOR IN MID TN FORECAST. ANOTHER ONE OVR AR
WITH SOME INSTAB DOWNSTREAM COMES INTO PLAY. SYS SHOULD GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MID TN THIS MORNING...LIKELY
POPS. A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LULL IN
ACTIVITY WEST HALF OF MIDSTATE THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE INTO MID TN TONIGHT. MCS GENERATION POSSIBLE.
THE BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS WEST AND SOUTH OF CWFA
TONIGHT...AND KEPT CHANCE POPS RUNNING. LIKELY POPS FRI IN THE
SOUTH WITH GFS MCS TRACK INTO FRI NIGHT.

FRONT HOLDS STATIONARY IN OR NEAR MID TN THIS WEEKEND. THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM (NEXT WEEK)...
UPR RIDGE AND HEAT BUILDS FM THE SOUTHWEST MON-TUE...WITH STRONGER
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS POSSIBLE. UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR MID TN TUE-THU
WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      86  68  84  69 /  60  30  30  30
CLARKSVILLE    85  65  83  67 /  60  30  30  40
CROSSVILLE     81  65  82  65 /  70  40  30  20
COLUMBIA       86  68  85  69 /  60  30  70  30
LAWRENCEBURG   87  68  87  70 /  60  30  60  30
WAVERLY        86  67  83  68 /  60  30  30  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
516 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-121030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
516 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSTATE TODAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDSTATE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA MAY BE SEVERE ON FRIDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED NATURE OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JLM