Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1109 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009

.UPDATE...
LATEST SFC DATA SUGGESTS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME
SEVERE WEATHER SHORTLY. TORNADO WATCH FOR MOST OF MID TN TO BE
ISSUED MOMENTARILY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009/

UPDATE...
RAPID DESTAB LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WEST MID TN WITH LAPS PUSHING
LI/S TO -4 AND CAPES TO 1000J/KG. 12Z MODELS PUSH CORRELATED THETA-E
AXIS EAST TO INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BY 18Z. MOISTURE IS LIMITING
FACTOR...BUT STILL EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
EAST.

A SPECIAL 18Z RAOB WILL BE RELEASED TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS CLOUDY AND RAINY ACROSS THE MID STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. ONE THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT PRODUCED LARGE HAIL IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY. OTHERWISE, THE
MAIN ASPECT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THREE-HOUR RAIN AMOUNTS OF
BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS AND ONE INCH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
MID STATE, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

STILL EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING AND REACH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY LATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, PRODUCING THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND SPC HAS
PLACED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. HIGHS
TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S.

FRONT PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING, USHERING IN A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY PROBABLY WONT GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 30S OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEASTERN ONE OF HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECT A BRIEF WARM-UP ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HOWEVER, A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN
AIR. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, SINCE THE PERIOD OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE BRIEF
AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL DURING THE EVENT,
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR ONLY A TRACE EVENT.
HOWEVER, WELL HAVE TO KEEP OUR EYES ON THIS SYSTEM SINCE MODELS
SEEM TO WANT TO BRING A PRETTY DECENT SHOT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WITH IT. HOWEVER, IT SWEEPS THROUGH QUICKLY AND SHOULDNT CREATE
MUCH OF A PROBLEM EXCEPT, PERHAPS, ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
WHERE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS COULD FEASIBLY OCCUR.

LONG TERM...EXPECT DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN DEVELOPS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1214 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-191130-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
1214 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WARM MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTH INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN NORTH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CELLS
COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1016 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     HAIL             DOVER                   36.48N 87.84W
02/18/2009  E0.25 INCH       STEWART            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STEWART COUNTY EMA OFFICIALS REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

JWRIGHT