River Flood Warning 24, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1116 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND THEN MASSED INTO A
LARGE PRECIP SHIELD THAT COVERED MUCH OF THE MID STATE THIS
MORNING. SOME AREAS RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL... WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES IN A NARROW BAND FROM PERRY COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
METRO NASHVILLE INTO MACON COUNTY. ALSO...THERE WERE SOME
ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES OVER THE PLATEAU. SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS AND FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED EARLIER IN THOSE AREAS.
NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE AROUND ONE INCH FROM
INTERSTATE 65 EASTWARD...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE PLATEAU COUNTIES. WILL NOT CHANGE THE PRESENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH SCENARIO. THUS...IT WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE FOR METRO
NASHVILLE AND THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE MID-STATE...BUT REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINS
ARE EXPECTED.

THE ONLY AREA TO ESCAPE SIGNIFICANT RAINS LAST NIGHT AND SO FAR
TODAY IS THE AREA NORTHWEST OF NASHVILLE...THE SAME PLACE THAT
HAS DODGED MUCH OF THE RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS.

MOST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS PRECIP CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOT
CONFIDENT THAT RAINS WILL END ENTIRELY IN THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON PER CURRENT GRIDS SO WILL RE-INTRODUCE SMALL POPS IN
THAT AREA FOR REST OF TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009/

SHORT TERM (THRU MON)...
RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW RW DEVELOPMENT NEAR A SAVANNAH-
NASHVILLE-GLASGOW KY LINE. CELLS ARE MOVING NE AROUND 30 MPH
W/TRAINING FM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS CAPTURED WELL IN THE LATEST
MODELS WITH STEADY QPF AXIS THROUGH 12Z. TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LINE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z. FFA ON TRACK.

LATEST MODELS SIMILAR W/UPR SYS ACCELERATING EAST TDAY. EXPECT A
GRADUAL SHIFT OF HIGH QPF EAST OF I-65 BY LATE MORNING. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR PLATEAU AS HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADS INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR CUTS INTO W MID TN
AND WL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH RUN TIL NOON FOR METRO NASHVILLE AND
SOUTHWEST MID TN.

CONCERNING AREAS EAST OF I-65...PARTICULARILY THE PLATEAU...HEAVIER
RAINFALL EXPECTED 15-21Z. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. FFA ON TRACK THROUGH 21Z. PCPN WL TAPER BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE PLATEAU.

SCT RW- ACR N MID TN THIS EVENING. MUCH BETTER WEATHER SUNDAY W/PLENTY
OF SUN. SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
TEMPS AND SCT RW PLATEAU.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES AND MUCH COLDER H8 AIR KEEP TEMPS BLW NORMAL
TUE-WED. SOME MODERATION THU-FRI W/LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ010-011-
030>034-063>066-077>080.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TNZ008-009-027>029-
056>062-075-093>095.

&&

LV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
544 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

TNZ010-011-030>034-063>066-077>080-271030-
CLAY-PICKETT-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-CANNON-DEKALB-
WHITE-CUMBERLAND-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-
544 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NASHVILLE.

TNZ008-009-027>029-056>062-075-093>095-271030-
SUMNER-MACON-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-BEDFORD-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
544 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NASHVILLE.

TNZ005>007-022>026-271030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-
CHEATHAM-
544 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
737 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     FLASH FLOOD      15 SE NASHVILLE         36.02N 86.60W
09/26/2009                   DAVIDSON           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING NEAR MILL CREEK. SOME ROAD
            CLOSURES.

&&

04