Flood Watch 3, NWS Nashville, TN

Bedford County, TN, Benton County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Clay County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Cumberland County, TN, Davidson County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Giles County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Macon County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Overton County, TN, Perry County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Smith County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Van Buren County, TN, Warren County, TN, Wayne County, TN, White County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
942 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SO WILL LOWER POPS FOR
REMAINDER OF NIGHT...KEEPING A WATCHFUL EYE ON DEVELOPMENTS OUT W.
&&

17/MAG

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES IN THE CNTL PLAINS WL CONTINUE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO MID TN TONIGHT. FRONT WL PULL UP STATIONARY. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP TONIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACR THE OH VLY SAT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH ALONG STATIONARY FRONT. MODELS AGREEMENT
WITH INVERTED TROUGHING ALONG STALLED FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUN ACR MID
TN.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKELY SAT NIGHT-SUN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF THREE TO SIX INCHES EXPECTED. HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF LATER
MODELS HOLD THIS TREND. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING
SAT NIGHT-SUN. FLASH FLOOD OR HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (MEMESFOHX) SENT
TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN. FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

PCPN CHANCE DECREASES MON AS SYS MOVES EAST. DRY PERIOD MON EVENING
INTO WED MORNING...BEFORE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN WED NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TNZ005>011-
022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
544 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-021030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
544 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERATE
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR WINDS.
HEAVY RAINS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ON SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE MIDSTATE. THE FRONT
IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SWEEPING ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT RISK OFF SEVERE
STORMS THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALSO TEND TO
CONCENTRATE RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES
THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DUE TO THE CONTINUING THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

17/MAG