Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Nashville, TN

000 
WGUS74 KOHX 230214
FFSOHX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
914 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

TNC181-230430-
/O.CON.KOHX.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-090923T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE TN-
914 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY...

* AT 853 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED
  MAJOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AROUND CLIFTON. ROADS AROUND
  CLIFTON ARE BECOMING DIFFICULT TO CROSS IN PLACES AND SEVERAL MAY
  BECOME IMPASSIBLE IF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OCCURS. SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WAYNE
  COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF CLIFTON...MOVING TO THE NORTH      
  NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...THROUGH 1130 PM.
 
OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER 
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&

LAT...LON 3540 8796 3546 8799 3548 8781 3524 8798
      3538 8801

$$
31/JBW

000 
WGUS54 KOHX 230431
FFWOHX
TNC181-231030-
/O.EXT.KOHX.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-090923T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1131 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 530 AM CDT WEDNESDAY

* AT 1130 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 
  INDICATED FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLIFTON...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO
  INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD FALL ACROSS THIS AREA. STREET FLOODING
  HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN CLIFTON  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 8796 3546 8799 3548 8781 3524 8798
      3538 8801

$$
31/JBW

000 
WGUS54 KOHX 230433 CCA
FFWOHX
TNC181-231030-
/O.EXT.KOHX.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-090923T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED FOR PUNCTUATION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1133 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 530 AM CDT WEDNESDAY

* AT 1130 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 
  INDICATED FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLIFTON...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO
  INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD FALL ACROSS THIS AREA. STREET FLOODING   
  HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN CLIFTON.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 8796 3546 8799 3548 8781 3524 8798
      3538 8801

$$
31/JBW

000 
WGUS74 KOHX 230822
FFSOHX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
322 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

TNC181-230829-
/O.CAN.KOHX.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-090923T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE TN-
322 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN WAYNE
COUNTY...

WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED 
IN INTENSITY. MORE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY 
WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT. 

&&

LAT...LON 3540 8796 3546 8799 3548 8781 3524 8798
      3538 8801

$$

04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
749 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.UPDATE...FOR EVENING FCST DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION NOW COVERS THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE MID STATE.
PRECIPITATION EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF MS. NAM
APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS IS TOO BULLISH
WITH THE QPF RETURN. NEVERTHELESS...THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON A NORTHWARD MOVING VORTICITY CENTER AND SFC LOW WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE AS WE APPROACH
12Z OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR FLOODING CONCERNS...GUIDANCE IS RATHER ELEVATED ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT CENTER EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SOME TOWARD 12Z...HAVE DECIDED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE UPDATE...CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH THE POP COVERAGES. 70
POPS NORTHWEST DOWN TO 20 PERCENT EASTERN PLATEAU. I THINK I WILL GO
AHEAD AND INCLUDE 70 POPS(AS OPPOSED TO 50 POPS) ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS WELL HOWEVER.

REMAINDER OF FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LIGHT SE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
AHEAD OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING SFC LOW. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 70F RIGHT NOW...SO LOW TEMPS IN THE 65 TO 70F RANGE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...CEILINGS...VSBYS...AND TIMING DEVELOPMENT/LOCATIONS
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. MAIN SWATH SHWRS/TSTMS THRU 05Z TO STAY W OF
BNA...AND THUS VCTS. ZONE AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT MAINLY SCT AND ON
WED LIKELY...AND WITH TIMING DEVELOPMENT/LOCATIONS OF SHWRS/TSTMS
AFFECTING AIRPORTS IN QUESTION...WILL GO WITH VCTS BOTH LOCATIONS
STARTING 23/20Z WHEN BEST MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFTING
MECHANISMS WILL BE IN PLACE. VFR EXCEPT MVFR VSBYS BNA/CSV 23/09Z
TO 23/14Z AND 23/05Z TO 23/14Z DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT RESPECTIVELY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009/

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE TIMING
AND PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL. SEEMS LOTS OF FOLKS HAVE PLANNED
OUTDOOR EVENTS WITH EXPECTATIONS OF NORMAL...GENERALLY DRY FALL
WX...BUT THE PAST WEEK HAS NOT BEEN NORMAL AT ALL. WE ARE ALREADY
IN THE TOP 5 WETTEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
MORE THAN 5 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MORE RAIN IS ON THE WAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE MID STATE TODAY...BUT
RECENT RADAR IMAGES ARE PRETTY QUIET WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST TO OUR WEST. WE LOOK
FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
LATE TODAY...SO HIGH POPS MAY BE INCLUDED THERE FOR THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO JUST
20-30 POPS WILL BE USED FOR LATE TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL
MEAN HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW MOISTURE RICH AIR STREAMING OUR
WAY...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WELL OVER 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE CONDITIONS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
TN AND OH VALLEY REGIONS. HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR RAIN...BUT OTHER PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AGAIN...OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON THESE
DAYS. SOME COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET A
LITTLE FEISTY...WITH BRIEF LOCAL GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY AS WEATHER
SYSTEMS BEGIN TO MOVE AND A SURFACE FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE AREA.
MODELS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE DRYING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY MONDAY BRINGING GENUINE
EARLY FALL WX. DRY WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
537 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-231030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
537 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...
...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT. STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THIS FRONT.
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NASHVILLE.

31/JBW