Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
307 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL BE BASED ON A MODEL SOLUTIONS COMPROMISE
UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

CURRENTLY...SFC LOW STILL POSITIONED ACROSS CNTRL LA WITH AN INVERTED
SFC TROUGH MAINLY ACROSS W PORTIONS OF MID STATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS SE LA...WITH SCT SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...WITH GENERALLY AT THE MOST A QUARTER TO AS
MUCH AS A HALF INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED AFTER 7 PM THRU THE REMINDER
OF THE NIGHT...AND WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
INCH ACROSS MAINLY SW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE BY SAT EVENING...
WILL AT THIS TIME LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AS OF 7 PM
THIS EVENING. AM NOT CANCELING AT THIS TIME WITH SOME STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON STILL PRODUCING ONE HALF TO AROUND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE MID STATE...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.
THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE AREA AFTER 7 PM. WILL
INCLUDE A LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST PERIOD IN ZONES TO DEAL WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION.

MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW MOVEMENT OF SFC LOW TO THE N...BEING NEAR
THE MO BOOTHEEL...WITH SFC FRONT FORMING TO OUR S AND MOVING N
ACROSS THE MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT...POSITIONED ACROSS S KY...ON
SUN. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME DIFFUSE BY THIS EVENING...AND
WILL JUST CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT.

DESPITE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING DIFFUSE...DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH S TO SWLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO STILL CONTINUE THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND A COLD FRONT FINALLY
APPROACHES THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH LIKELY SHWRS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS THRU SUN EVENING. WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL TREND OF
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS THRU NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUN THRU 00Z WED COULD AGAIN BE IN THE RANGE OF
AROUND ONE TO AROUND TWO INCHES EACH DAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD OF UP TO FOUR INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED AGAIN LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT LOWS...WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
FOR LOWS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AS FOR HIGHS...WILL START IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUT US NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR HIGHS/LOWS THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  79  68  79 /  20  60  60  70
CLARKSVILLE    65  79  68  79 /  20  60  60  70
CROSSVILLE     65  75  66  76 /  20  60  60  70
COLUMBIA       68  79  68  79 /  20  60  60  70
LAWRENCEBURG   69  80  68  80 /  20  60  60  70
WAVERLY        67  79  68  80 /  20  60  60  70
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-022>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&

31/JBW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
553 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2009

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-191100-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
553 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE FOLLOWING WEATHER HAZARD(S) ARE IN EFFECT...
...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS FLOODING IN SEVERAL AREAS. MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL. GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUNDS...EVEN THESE SMALLER AMOUNTS
MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/OHX OR BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE CONTINUING CHANCE OF RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NASHVILLE.

JLM