Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
309 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2009

.SHORT TERM...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS OVER PART OF
NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING POSES A FLOOD THREAT SINCE
IT IS FALLING OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. THE GREATEST THREAT IS GENERALLY
IN A BAND FROM NASHVILLE AND DAVIDSON COUNTY, EASTWARD TOWARD
CARTHAGE AND COOKEVILLE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE
AREAS AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND
THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED PAST ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION
TIME OF 17Z.

AREA RADARS ALSO SHOWED MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THOSE AREAS FOR A POSSIBLE
FLOOD WATCH FOR LATER TODAY. MOST SOUTHERN AREAS HAVE NOT SEEN THE
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AS EXPERIENCED ACROSS
THE NORTH.

THIS STATIC AND VERY MOIST WEATHER PATTERN WILL LAST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK, EVEN AS OUR PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING LOW, THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN OUR AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS, AND PERHAPS LONGER.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-NIGHT FLUCTUATION
WITH LOWS AT NIGHT BETWEEN 65 AND 70 AND DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...LATEST GFS RUN DOESNT OFFER MUCH HOPE FOR US GETTING
OUT OF THIS SOGGY WEATHER PATTERN. IN FACT, IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE
COULD GET ANOTHER 50H LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CLOSE OFF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP US IN A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR. THIS MEANS THAT
THE PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS FOR A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT
WEEK IS NOW ON HOLD. LOOKS LIKE GOOD WEATHER FOR DUCKS AND MOLD
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      77  68  77  68 /  70  40  70  50
CLARKSVILLE    78  67  78  66 /  60  40  60  40
CROSSVILLE     72  66  72  67 /  80  40  60  50
COLUMBIA       79  69  79  68 /  70  50  70  60
LAWRENCEBURG   80  70  80  68 /  70  50  70  60
WAVERLY        77  68  77  66 /  70  40  60  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TNZ005>011-022>034-059-
062>066.

&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2009

TNZ005>011-022>034-059-062>066-181030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-WILLIAMSON-RUTHERFORD-
CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-
500 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO PICK UP ANOTHER ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH. WITH
THE GROUND NEARLY SATURATED IN MANY PLACES, SOME OF THE RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF CREEKS, STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS, AS
WELL AS PONDING OF WATER OF ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN EVERY DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND WITH
WATER LEVELS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH, THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED,
MINOR FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NASHVILLE.

TNZ056>058-060-061-075-077>080-093>095-181030-
PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-MAURY-MARSHALL-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-
VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
500 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO PICK UP ANOTHER ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH. SOME
OF THE RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF CREEKS, STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS, AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN EVERY DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND WITH
WATER LEVELS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH, THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED,
MINOR FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NASHVILLE.

ROSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
303 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NASHVILLE               36.17N 86.78W
09/17/2009                   DAVIDSON           TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING ON CHARLOTTE PIKE AND AMERICAN ROAD

0210 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 N LEBANON             36.30N 86.32W
09/17/2009                   WILSON             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER ACROSS HIGHWAY 231 NORTH

&&

ROSE