Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Nashville, TN

000 
WGUS74 KOHX 111510
FFSOHX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1010 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

TNC049-137-111700-
/O.CON.KOHX.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-090811T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FENTRESS TN-PICKETT TN-
1010 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL PICKETT AND NORTHEASTERN FENTRESS COUNTIES...

AT 1005 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT RAINFALL HAS SLACKED OFF IN NORTHEASTERN FENTRESS COUNTY
AND FAR EASTERN PICKETT COUNTY. HARDEST HIT AREAS WERE LAUREL FORK 
CREEK...BLACK HOUSE BRANCH AND POGUE CREEKS IN FENTRESS COUNTY AND 
STATION CAMP CREEK AND THOMPSON CREEK IN PICKET COUNTY. 

THIS RAINFALL HAS LIKELY CAUSED SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS TO 
TEMPORARILY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3642 8468 3642 8500 3656 8503 3661 8478
      3659 8476

$$

JLM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
740 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

.AVIATION UPDATE...YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT LOOK FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT BNA/CSV AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AM ALSO EXPECTING SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO NEAR CALM AND SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING, AND PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS RUMBLED ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE
OVERNIGHT, AND EARLY THIS MORNING A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING
BETWEEN PORTLAND, NASHVILLE AND MURFREESBORO.

WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG OHIO RIVER VALLEY SEPARATES A HIGH
THETA-E FIELD TO THE SOUTH AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH. THE
SURFACE THETA-E GRADIENT WAS BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND CLARKSVILLE AT
05Z AND LATEST RUC SAGS GRADIENT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY. WITH DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE, BELIEVE
WE WILL QUICKLY SEE CU BUILD-UPS AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY, WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT SHARP UPPER TROUGH TO SWING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 18Z, AND WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE OVER THE SE MO-SW KY-W TN AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON, AND SWEEP EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

AS SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, EXPECT SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO ALSO PUSH ACROSS THE MID STATE, REACHING THE NASHVILLE
AREA BY 05-08Z AND REACHING THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, EXTENDING ACROSS
OTHER PARTS OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING, AS TSTMS
PUSH EASTWARD.

STILL EXPECT DRYING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY,
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LONG TERM...SHORTWAVE THAT SWEEPS THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TONIGHT WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND TRY TO CLOSE
OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT THE
SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PARK ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN START TO RETROGRADE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS MEANS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
(MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON) WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST DURING THAT
PERIOD, WITH THE BEST CHANCE EACH PERIOD ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY BE A
MOISTURE-INFECTED RIDGE, AS RESIDUAL DEEP MOISTURE ALONG GULF
COASTAL REGION LIFTS NORTH. THUS, CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-121030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
500 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE, WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN
ADDITION, TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
BRIEF, MINOR FLOODING AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ROSE