Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
252 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2009

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN EVENT...

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS EVENING
SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHWEST MONTANA AND THE CLEARWATER
MOUNTAINS IN NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER MOST OF
WESTERN MONTANA...THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND
THUS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS CELLS SHIFT TO THE EAST. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE FURTHER MOISTENS THURSDAY...THE THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA WITH A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
REGION AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO. BY THE END OF THE EVENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT UP TO AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK AND THE CLEARWATER
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO RECEIVING TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GREATER THAN FOUR INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LOCALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT DUE TO FORECAST
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT...THESE AREAS ARE DIFFICULT TO
IDENTIFY AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
FALL...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO EARLIER
THIS WEEK...RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RAW DAY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY FOR OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
PUSH EAST OUT OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE...GRADUALLY BRINGING
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE DISAGREED ABOUT SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT
POTENTIAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SO KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...&&

SHORT TERM...BAUCK
LONG TERM....PALLISTER/NOLTE
AVIATION...BAUCK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
247 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2009

IDZ009-010-052115-
EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-
247 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LEMHI COUNTY UNTIL 315
PM MDT...

AT 247 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SALMON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...NORTH FORK AND
CARMEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4525 11423 4561 11381 4557 11379 4552 11382
      4552 11377 4547 11375 4545 11378 4539 11373
      4532 11373 4530 11371 4511 11406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 229DEG 14KT 4525 11403

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
417 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2009

IDZ006-009-010-MTZ005-006-052315-
EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-WESTERN LEMHI
COUNTY-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-
417 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN RAVALLI...NORTHWESTERN
LEMHI AND SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM MDT/415 PM PDT/...

AT 415 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 20 MILES WEST OF HALE GULCH EAST OF SHOUP...OR 38
MILES NORTHWEST OF SALMON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...HALE GULCH EAST OF
SHOUP...NORTH FORK...GIBBONSVILLE...SHOUP...LOST TRAIL PASS AND SULA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4544 11477 4593 11395 4575 11382 4575 11388
      4569 11388 4566 11392 4562 11389 4561 11382
      4558 11379 4552 11382 4551 11376 4543 11376
      4528 11465
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 243DEG 23KT 4540 11460

ZUMPFE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
503 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2009

MTZ001-003-004-052345-
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-LOWER CLARK FORK
REGION-
503 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SANDERS AND CENTRAL
MINERAL COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 459 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SAINT REGIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAINT REGIS...
PARADISE...PLAINS AND KEYSTONE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4763 11481 4744 11458 4715 11516 4729 11533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 230DEG 22KT 4729 11513

ZUMPFE