Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Missoula, MT

000 
WWUS85 KMSO 300202
RFWMSO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
802 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2009

MTZ110-111-300315-
/O.CAN.KMSO.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090930T0200Z/
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD-
802 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE DEERLODGE/WEST
BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT AS A COLD FRONT HAS
BROUGHT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND DISSIPATING WINDS TO BELOW
RED FLAG CRITERIA.  THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
556 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2009

.UPDATE...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MONTANA
AND CENTRAL IDAHO FOR ELEVATIONS 5000 FEET AND ABOVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BITTERROOT MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING. SINCE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO CREATE STRONG
WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT
KSMN. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AND OBSCURE
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2009/

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST SIGNS OF A CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. NORTHWEST MONTANA HAS ALREADY UNDERGONE THIS
INITIAL PUSH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS WEST
CENTRAL MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO LATER THIS MORNING...AND FINALLY
CROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA BY THIS AFTERNOON. HERE IS WHERE THE FRONT
WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY HUNG UP...THUS FOCUSING THE STRONGEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT TO OCCUR IN AND AROUND THE
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION AS WELL AS THROUGH LEMHI COUNTY IN IDAHO
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FRONT LOOKS PRETTY
DRY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES MORE
ORGANIZED. ONCE THINGS GET GOING THEY ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST.

COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA
AND WORK ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING BELOW 6000 FEET DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE COLD AIR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEVELOPING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD
SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON WHETHER THE COLD AIR CAN TIME ITSELF WITH THE
PRECIPITATION IN ORDER TO CREATE THESE AMOUNTS. A HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN CONTINUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
STAY TUNED TO CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AND ANY UPDATES MADE AS MORE
DETAILS ARE OBTAINED.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH A QUICK SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING.
AFTER THIS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSAGE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. SPECIFIC DETAILS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNSETTLED...BUT A CONTINUATION OF A
COOLER AND MOIST WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY THROUGH COMING
WEEKEND. BY MONDAY THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING TO
THE EAST WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND
NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
     BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS.

ID...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT /2 PM PDT/ THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
     5000 FEET FOR EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER
     MOUNTAINS-WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY.

&&

UPDATE...ALLEGRETTO
SHORT TERM...ALLEGRETTO
LONG TERM....KOLATA
AVIATION...KOLATA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
411 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2009

IDZ009-010-MTZ006-007-292215-
WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-
411 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS EVENING
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS. THEN...AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT THE PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE DOWN TO
AROUND 6000 FEET. THE MAIN IMPACT AREA SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY LOST
TRAIL PASS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD TO GEORGETOWN LAKE AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND BUTTE. 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST AS THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
AFTER THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.