Flood Watch 2, NWS Missoula, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
242 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...A VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FAVORABLE
WIND ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM LEMHI COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE BUTTE/PINTLAR REGION INTO EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHCENTRAL IDAHO...THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE ENVIRONMENT AND
SUPPORT MORE AND MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CLEARWATERS...BITTERROOTS AND BITTERROOT VALLEY TOWARDS MISSOULA
AREA.

THE UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
TONIGHT AND LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. ABUNDANT
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION AND INTERACT WITH
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM TO PRODUCE WETTING RAINS AREA WIDE. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING...TARGETING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INCLUDING GLACIER PARK...
THE MISSION MOUNTAINS AND THE CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO. THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT TWO TO THREE INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP
TO 4 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH FOR GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS. NO FLOOD PRODUCTS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR THE
CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS OR MISSION MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IF MORE PRECIPITATION THAN FORECASTED OCCURS. LOCATIONS
ELSEWHERE CAN EXPECT UP TO AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO 20 TO
30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A GRADUAL DRYING TREND FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOISTEN AND PRODUCE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN IDAHO WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS DEVELOPING QUICKLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY WILL BE SEVERE INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAUCK
LONG TERM....PALLISTER
AVIATION...BAUCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1020 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2009

IDZ005>008-MTZ001>005-043-070400-
NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION-LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION-
KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-WEST GLACIER REGION-
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-
MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION-
1020 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2009 /920 AM PDT THU AUG 6 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO...NORTHWEST MONTANA AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING
AREAS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED.
BETWEEN FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MANY AREAS MAY SEE UP TO
ONE INCH OF RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
POSSIBLY SEEING TWO TO THREE INCHES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. ALONG
WITH THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

IDZ009-010-MTZ006-007-070400-
WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-
1020 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS BEING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
IN ADDITION...FLOOD AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN
ARE A CONCERN FROM SHORT DURATION HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED.
BETWEEN FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER ELEVATION
VALLEYS MAY SEE UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN POSSIBLY SEEING MORE THAN TWO INCHES. ALONG WITH THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMPARED TO EARLY THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
257 PM MDT THU AUG 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             10 WNW DIVIDE           45.81N 112.94W
08/06/2009  M1.75 INCH       SILVER BOW         MT   PARK/FOREST SRVC

0235 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 WNW DIVIDE           45.81N 112.94W
08/06/2009                   SILVER BOW         MT   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            HEAVY RAIN WASHED OUT FOREST SERVICE ROADS.

0250 PM     HAIL             7 S BUTTE               45.90N 112.53W
08/06/2009  E1.00 INCH       SILVER BOW         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL INCREASING WITH SIZE. WINDOWS OF HOME DAMAGED. TREES
            BRANCHES STIPPED FROM LARGE HAIL.

&&

FELSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
307 PM MDT THU AUG 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             BUTTE                   46.00N 112.53W
08/06/2009  M1.00 INCH       SILVER BOW         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FELSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
310 PM MDT THU AUG 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S BUTTE               45.99N 112.53W
08/06/2009  M0.25 INCH       SILVER BOW         MT   MESONET

            0.25 INCHES OF RAIN IN 10 MINUTES AT BERT MOONEY AIRPORT.

&&

FELSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
322 PM MDT THU AUG 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 WNW DIVIDE           45.81N 112.94W
08/06/2009                   SILVER BOW         MT   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            HEAVY RAIN WASHED OUT FOREST SERVICE ROADS.

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S BUTTE               45.99N 112.53W
08/06/2009  M0.25 INCH       SILVER BOW         MT   MESONET

            0.25 INCHES OF RAIN IN 10 MINUTES AT BERT MOONEY AIRPORT.

0300 PM     HAIL             7 S BUTTE               45.90N 112.53W
08/06/2009  M1.50 INCH       SILVER BOW         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL DAMAGED WINDOWS OF HOME AND THREE VEHICLES.TREE
            BRANCHES STIPPED FROM LARGE HAIL.

0305 PM     HAIL             BUTTE                   46.00N 112.53W
08/06/2009  M1.00 INCH       SILVER BOW         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FELSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
338 PM MDT THU AUG 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BUTTE                   46.00N 112.53W
08/06/2009  E1.00 INCH       SILVER BOW         MT   UTILITY COMPANY

            PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT REPORTED 3/4 INCH HAIL AND
            ESTIMATED ONE INCH OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES IN BUTTE. WATER
            FLOWING DOWN STREETS.

&&

FELSCH