Tornado Warning 3, NWS Morristown, TN

000 
WWUS54 KMRX 182005
SVSMRX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

TNC129-145-182015-
/O.CON.KMRX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090218T2015Z/
ROANE TN-MORGAN TN-
305 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EST FOR MORGAN
AND ROANE COUNTIES...

AT 304 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OAKDALE...OR 7
MILES NORTH OF KINGSTON...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  DEARMOND BY 310 PM EST...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

LAT...LON 3591 8458 3596 8463 3602 8460 3610 8439
      3590 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 269DEG 46KT 3597 8452

$$

DMG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
145 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO RAISE MAX TEMPS MOST OF MRX CWA. WARM FRONT
HAS SHIFTED EAST OR WESTERN EDGE OF SURFACE RIDGE AND INVERSION HAS
ERODED. WAA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD WORKING INTO VALLEY EAST
OF PLATEAU. SEVERE THREAT FOR HAIL...WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES
APPEARS TO BE ON THE RISE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.  HAVE
EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINA...ADDITIONALLY HAVE UPGRADED THE WIND
ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SMOKY MT AREA.
OTHERWISE...RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT IS STRETCHED TO OUR
SOUTH.  THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH IN LATE TODAY.  AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.  BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN...CHANGING ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION...SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST IN
THE NORMALLY FAVORED AREAS ON THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT MOISTURE
LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.  WILL CARRY
HIGH CHANCE POPS AT MOST IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS.  SHOULD BE DRY
FRIDAY...THEN THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.  MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING IN...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  SOME HINT OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...BUT PLACEMENT AND TIMING EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN.  LOOKS
LIKE SOME PRECIP A GOOD BET FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  THIS
WILL BEAR WATCHING. SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
SHOULD BE DRY FOR MONDAY...THEN GFS SHOWS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FOR TUESDAY.  LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT...SO WILL JUST ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  67  37  49  24  50 / 100  40  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  36  43  20  45 / 100  50  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN  64  33  44  19  46 / 100  50  10  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  53  33  39  18  40 / 100  60  20  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.

TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST GREENE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST GREENE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...MORGAN...SCOTT TN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST POLK...JOHNSON...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST
     MONROE...UNICOI.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.

&&

MJB/LDW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
530 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-191000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
530 AM EST WED FEB 18 2009 /430 AM CST WED FEB 18 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS.  ADDITIONALLY...STRONG...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS.  A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
SMOKY MOUNTAIN REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WARP AROUND MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT COULD GENERATE UP TO
AN INCH OF SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1130 AM EST WED FEB 18 2009

TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-181730-
ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
LEE-LOUDON-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NW BLOUNT-ROANE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON-WISE-
1130 AM EST WED FEB 18 2009

...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

AT 1128 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH...ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

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