Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...STILL CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT FORCING NOT
APPARENT AND UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY HARD TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT
POPS.  MAY HAVE SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY TONIGHT. CHANCE POPS AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.  WILL GENERALLY STAY CLOSE TO MAV TEMPS...WHICH LOOK
REASONABLE OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN ISSUE FOR THE
LONG TERM IS UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION IN THE LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS EVENT. REMAINDER OF LONG
TERM PERIOD APPEARS DRY AT THIS TIME AS FRONT IS PROJECTED TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE GFS ALONG WITH A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AROUND
AN UPPER CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE GULF COAST. THIS IS NOT
DEPICTED BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL ALONG WITH A MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THUS WILL DISCOUNT FOR NOW AND FAVOR EUROPEAN
SOLUTION AS THIS MAY BE A SPURIOUS DEPICTION IN THE GFS.
HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ON THIS FEATURE. FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY DID NOT
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MAV/MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  83  64  83  59 /  30  30  40  70  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  80  64  80  57 /  30  30  40  70  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  82  64  81  56 /  30  40  30  70  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  81  60  81  56 /  30  40  40  60  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

LDW/LCM