Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
337 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
CONVECTION ACROSS SRN IN/IL SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA IN THE MORNING. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME AS THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
WILL AFFECT OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SOME
GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TN VALLEY
AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX. WILL HAVE LIKELY SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS
GOOD WITH LI AROUND -5 AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. A
STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE LIFT ACROSS ERN
KY/WV. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA. THE SW VA COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN IF THE PRECIP
AXIS ENDS UP BEING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...COLD FRONT TRACKING
THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY.  SHOULD HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND LIFT
TO BUMP UP POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY.   THE FRONT LINGERS
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR
BOTH PERIODS WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES NEAREST TO
THE FRONT AND WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES.  THE UPPER TROUGH
FOLLOWS ON MONDAY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  WITH
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING...WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY.  STAYED NEAR GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  66  79  60  73 /  60  60  50  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  66  78  58  72 /  70  70  50  40  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  66  78  57  71 /  70  70  50  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              77  61  76  55  71 /  70  70  50  40  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DGS/GH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
322 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-090730-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
322 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009 /222 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
CREATE A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT
ANY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.

SATURATED GROUNDS FROM SEVERAL WET DAYS COULD CAUSE TREES TO FALL
MORE EASILY THAN NORMAL. ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...AND LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUD SLIDES. REMAIN
ALERT FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IF YOU
LIVE NEAR AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND ANY OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
611 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

TNZ012-013-035-081115-
CAMPBELL-MORGAN-SCOTT-
611 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE AFFECTING CAMPBELL...MORGAN AND
SCOTT COUNTIES...

AT 610 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAMESTOWN...MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CAMPBELL...MORGAN AND SCOTT COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF JACKSBORO AND LA FOLLETTE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

DGS