Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.SHORT TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...RELATIVELY ACTIVE
PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES BUILDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING MAINLY ON
THE MAJOR TERRAIN FEATURES WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM FAST MOVING OHIO VALLEY MCS.
NAM/GFS DIDNT SEEM TO QUITE MODEL ALL THIS MIDWEST ACTION CORRECTLY
WHICH LEADS TO SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE FORECAST PROCESS. BANKING ON
SCATTERED CONVECTION SOUTH WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES NORTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MAJOR LEAGUE OHIO VALLEY MCS
LIKELY BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE VIEWING AREA. CRANKED
UP THE POPS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF
YET ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND DRIVING EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MRX CWFA. TWEAKED TEMPS ONLY SLIGHTLY OFF GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK IMPULSE MAY
BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SW VA/NE TN ON SAT.
OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW BECOMING CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/ N GA ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO ABOVE CLIMO. HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL BE
COMMON OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TSTMS LIMITED TO AFTN
HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFT. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE ON MONDAY
AS UPPER TROF SLIDES INTO THE OH VALLEY.  INCREASED PCPN CHC RETURNS
LATE IN PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  89  69  90  70 /  50  50  30  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  69  86  67  89  68 /  60  60  30  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  85  68  89  68 /  60  60  30  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  84  64  85  63 /  60  60  30  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-051000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
500 AM EDT (400 AM CDT) TUE AUG 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS AS RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
254 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

TNZ014-015-VAZ001-042000-
CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-LEE-
254 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE AFFECTING CLAIBORNE...HANCOCK AND
LEE COUNTIES...

AT 253 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FERNDALE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

DH