Severe Thunderstorm Warning 269, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...AS A TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...IT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH SUNSET.  AS THE TROUGH AXIS
EXITS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH.  WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL...PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
TOWARDS MORNING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS.  ON TUESDAY...A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST AS AN
UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION.  WILL SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SLIGHTLY...BUT WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THIS PERIOD...AS GREAT LAKES/MISS VALLEY UPPER TROUGH
HANGS ON FOR ENTIRE PERIOD.  THIS SETUP WILL KEEP US NEAR THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL GLANCING BLOWS FROM SHORT WAVES RACING
THROUGH THE FLOW.

OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE REGIME MOST DAYS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS THAT COULD HAVE SOME CONVECTION
THAT LASTS DEEP INTO THE NIGHT.  THE MOST ORGANIZED SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME LOOKS TO BE IN THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.  HAVE
RAISED THE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AFTER SEEING GOOD AGREEMENT BY
MOST MODELS IN THIS SCENARIO.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE A LITTLE UNDER GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
THIS WEEK CONSIDERING EXPECTED PATTERN...BUT WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
MINS OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  61  86  65  79  65 /  10  10  30  50  20
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN    60  83  63  78  64 /  10  10  20  40  20
OAK RIDGE, TN            60  83  64  78  63 /  10  10  30  40  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN   58  81  59  79  61 /  20  20  10  40  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

MJB/GM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
404 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-210815-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
404 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009 /304 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY IN
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. A FEW STORMS COULD HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
806 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

TNZ016-017-042-044-VAZ005-210045-
HAWKINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON-
806 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING GREENE...HAWKINS...SCOTT...
SULLIVAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 804 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF GRAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...MAY OCCUR WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT
DRIVE THROUGH WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. TURN AROUND DONT DROWN

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