Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
232 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER MIDDLE TN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. EXTRAOPLATION OF THESE SHOWERS BRINGS THEM INTO OUR
AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND MIDNIGHT. SO WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE
EVENING HOURS. NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR AREA AS
OVERCAST CLOUDS ALL DAY WILL PREVENT MUCH DESTABILIZATION...AND
ORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. WILL ALSO JUST MENTION A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY TRAILING BEHIND. SATELLITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NOT MUCH
PRECIP. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. EXPECTED CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD
PREVENT NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FURTHER DECREASE OUR
PRECIP CHANCES. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH THE DRIER NAM FOR TOMORROW
AND WILL TAPER THE POPS BACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING ACROSS THE SE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE NE STATES WITH NW
FLOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SO LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE THERE.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY ON THE
EAST SIDE SO KEPT FORECAST DRY. HOWEVER TROUGH ACROSS NE BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST AND RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES EDGES EAST WARMING
THE ATMOSPHERE SO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY GFS SHOWS
WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY AND CLIPPING OUR NE AREA BUT
ECMWF DRY SO KEEPING FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. RIDGING MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER AND AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BY FRIDAY KEEPS ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY. SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGHER
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  84  66  90  64 /  70  30  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  84  62  88  63 /  70  20  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  84  62  89  62 /  70  20  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  82  59  86  57 /  70  10  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

DGS/TD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
323 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-060900-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
323 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009 /223 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...AND A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>